April 2010 BLS Nonfarm Forecast: +220,000

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WANTED Technologies expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report Nonfarm Employment gains of 220,000 workers for April 2010. The BLS Employment Situation for April 2010 is scheduled to be released on May 7, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

The BLS reported employment gains of 162,000 nonfarm workers for March of 2010, after offsetting employment changes of -14,000 and +14,000 workers for January and February.

This month's forecast is based on the following:

  • Hiring Demand - the number of online job postings - has grown since last month. Compared to the previous month, there were 10,000 more online job ads on major national job boards (Monster, CareerBuilder, HotJobs). This was a 1.8% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. In other words, hiring, as expressed through the number of online job ads, has been rising at a slow and steady pace, presaging continued employment gains.
  • Although Craig's List is NOT included in our forecasting models, it experienced a "level-shift" in January of this year which has held up so far. In 2009 the number of job postings on Craig's List was around 170,000, weekly. More recently that number has hovered around 210,000 new job ads a week. Craig's List is the largest "job board" by volume in the United States and is a good indicator of demand for low salary or hourly jobs.
  • Over the period covering March 13 to April 12th, the 4-week moving average count of new Unemployment Insurance Claims has fallen by about 4,000. Over a 4-week cumulative period that means that 16,000 fewer people have filed an unemployment insurance claim.
  • Since February 8th the S&P 500 index has gained 15%, suggesting that others share in this positive expectation.
  • Our forecast for this month also includes the hiring of an estimated 66,000 Census workers. Most of the US Census Bureau hiring will be effectuated in May of this year, where we can expect (temporary) employment gains of 350,000 nonfarm workers due to the decennial census alone.