Wall Street Journal – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 1.9 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on July 16, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 160,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. Optimism seems to be waning a bit: the same economists predicted average monthly gains of 180,000 in June, and 196,000 in May. A year ago, the July 2009 survey forecast losses of 70,000 per month.

There is also little optimism for significant improvement to the unemployment rate, as predictions were largely unchanged from prior months. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December. The timeline for regaining "full employment" (5.5%) was predicted to be at least 2015 by about half of the economists surveyed.

Reflecting the current political debate, economists were split about the ongoing Senate battle over long-term unemployment benefits:

59% of those who responded to the question … said if they were in Congress they would vote to renew the extension of unemployment compensation for up to 99 weeks, a proposal that is stalled in the Senate amid partisan maneuvering and worries about the federal deficit.

"An abrupt end to unemployment benefits could do more to damage the deficit than repair it by weakening the recovery and forcing the long-term unemployed to apply for more costly long-term benefits, such as Social Security," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

But 19 economists oppose an extension. It "increases incentive to be unemployed," said Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital LLC.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from July 9-12. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.2 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on June 10, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 180,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a slight decline over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 196,000 jobs. A year ago, the June 2009 survey forecast losses of 86, 000 per month.

Economists expect improvement in the unemployment rate to come slowly, despite the predicted gains. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, up from April's 9.6 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. The December 2010 forecast has ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow as well, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December.

Amid fears over the European debt crisis, job growth is still seen as a key factor in the economic recovery:

… 11 [economists surveyed] said the biggest downside risk was disappointing job growth in the U.S. In the U.S., the pace of job growth is key to the speed of the recovery. Twenty-two economists, a plurality of respondents, said the one development that could lead growth to exceed their forecasts in the second half is a pickup in hiring.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from June 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.4 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on May 14, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in May predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 196,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a solid improvement over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 158,000 jobs. A year ago, the May 2009 survey forecast losses of 176, 000 per month.

Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for improvement in the unemployment rate remains guarded. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, down from April's 9.9 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.3 percent for December 2010. The December 2010 forecast has remained static over the past three months, and ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from May 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 200,000 Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on September 11, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in September predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 17,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is the first forecast of average monthly job gains since March 2008, and follows last month's forecast of average monthly losses of 27,000 jobs over the next twelve months. Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for the unemployment rate has not improved for 2009. This month's survey showed an increase from in the unemployment rate from 9.9 percent to 10 percent for December 2009, and then subsequently a decrease from 9.4 percent to 9.3 percent for December 2010.

Even though the recession may have ended, on average the economists expect the jobless rate, at 9.7% in August, to peak at 10.2% before slowly declining next year. While the economists forecast that the economy will add jobs over the next 12 months, the net increase is seen at a modest 200,000 over that period and the unemployment rate still is expected to be at 9.3% in December 2010.When asked about the biggest risk to the economy right now, 10 of the economists highlighted the weak jobs market.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from September 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Job Loss Forecast Improves – Unemployment Rate Forecast Remains Bleak

By Juli Morris on August 19, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in August predict that the U.S. economy will lose an average of 27,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months, significantly better than the 70,000 average monthly losses they forecast for July. This is the fifth consecutive survey predicting declining monthly losses. Despite the declining losses, the outlook for the unemployment rate has improved only slightly, from 10 percent to 9.9 percent for December 2009, and from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent for December 2010.

A better-than-expected employment report for July, where employers cut 247,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell for the first time in 15 months, suggests the worst is over. The unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 9.9% by December, but economists forecast that the economy will shed far fewer jobs over the next 12 months than they had forecast last month.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from August 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Job Loss Forecast Slightly Better – Unemployment Rate Forecast Remains Bleak

By Juli Morris on July 14, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in July predict that the U.S. economy will lose an average of 70,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months, less than the 86,000 average monthly losses they forecast in June. This is the fourth consecutive survey predicting declining monthly losses. Despite the declining losses, the outlook for the unemployment rate looks increasingly dire:

On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010. "The mother of all jobless recoveries is coming down the pike," said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics. But he doesn't favor more stimulus now, saying "lags in monetary and fiscal policy actions" should be allowed to "work through the system."

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists, conducted July 2-7, reveals that economists' view of the employment outlook has again improved over the past month. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ's Survey of Economists Shows Improvement in Twelve-Month Employment Outlook

By Juli Morris on June 16, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists, conducted June 5-9, reveals that economists' view of the employment outlook has significantly improved over the past month. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

Economists surveyed in June predict that the U.S. economy will lose an average of 86,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months, less than half the average monthly losses they forecast in May. This is the third consecutive survey predicting declining monthly losses.

The 52 economists surveyed, on average, also predict that the recession will end in August and economic growth will return in the third quarter. The outlook for the unemployment rate, however, remains dire:

…[E]ven though economists see a return to growth in the third quarter, they expect the unemployment rate to hit 9.9% by the end of this year. And the turnaround in the labor market is expected to be slow. By December 2010, they expect the rate to drop back only to its current level of 9.4%, with the economy shedding an additional million jobs over the next 12 months.