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WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 1.9 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on July 16, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 160,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. Optimism seems to be waning a bit: the same economists predicted average monthly gains of 180,000 in June, and 196,000 in May. A year ago, the July 2009 survey forecast losses of 70,000 per month.

There is also little optimism for significant improvement to the unemployment rate, as predictions were largely unchanged from prior months. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December. The timeline for regaining "full employment" (5.5%) was predicted to be at least 2015 by about half of the economists surveyed.

Reflecting the current political debate, economists were split about the ongoing Senate battle over long-term unemployment benefits:

59% of those who responded to the question … said if they were in Congress they would vote to renew the extension of unemployment compensation for up to 99 weeks, a proposal that is stalled in the Senate amid partisan maneuvering and worries about the federal deficit.

"An abrupt end to unemployment benefits could do more to damage the deficit than repair it by weakening the recovery and forcing the long-term unemployed to apply for more costly long-term benefits, such as Social Security," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

But 19 economists oppose an extension. It "increases incentive to be unemployed," said Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital LLC.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from July 9-12. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

Preliminary report from BLS shows loss of 125,000 jobs in June

By Juli Morris on July 2, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Amid fears of a stalled economic recovery, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that employment fell by 125,000 jobs in June, consistent with consensus estimates. The June numbers reflect a loss of 225,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. Private-sector payrolls added 83,000 jobs. The economy is still short 7.9 million jobs from the employment levels seen at start of the recession in December 2007.

Jobs gains were more broad-based in June, with jobs added in leisure and hospitality, temporary help services, management and technical consulting, business support services, health care, mining, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. Construction employment continued its decline.

Along with the preliminary report for May, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job gains for April at 313,000 jobs, up 23,000 from its revised estimate of 290,000. May's preliminary estimate was revised slightly upwards, for a gain of 433,000 jobs. One more revision for May may still occur.

The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent; economists had predicted a slight rise.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.2 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on June 10, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 180,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a slight decline over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 196,000 jobs. A year ago, the June 2009 survey forecast losses of 86, 000 per month.

Economists expect improvement in the unemployment rate to come slowly, despite the predicted gains. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, up from April's 9.6 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. The December 2010 forecast has ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow as well, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December.

Amid fears over the European debt crisis, job growth is still seen as a key factor in the economic recovery:

… 11 [economists surveyed] said the biggest downside risk was disappointing job growth in the U.S. In the U.S., the pace of job growth is key to the speed of the recovery. Twenty-two economists, a plurality of respondents, said the one development that could lead growth to exceed their forecasts in the second half is a pickup in hiring.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from June 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

Preliminary report from BLS shows gain of 431,000 jobs in May

By Juli Morris on June 4, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment rose by 431,000 jobs in May, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The May numbers include 411,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. These jobs will be lost in the second half of the year. Consensus estimates had predicted a gain of 540,000 jobs. The economy has shed 8.5 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Jobs were added in manufacturing, temporary help services, and mining, while construction employment declined.

Along with the preliminary report for May, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job gains for March at 208,000 jobs, down 22,000 from its revised estimate of 230,000. April's preliminary estimate remained unchanged at a gain of 290,000 jobs. One more revision for April may still occur.

The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent; economists had predicted a smaller drop.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.4 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on May 14, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in May predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 196,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a solid improvement over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 158,000 jobs. A year ago, the May 2009 survey forecast losses of 176, 000 per month.

Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for improvement in the unemployment rate remains guarded. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, down from April's 9.9 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.3 percent for December 2010. The December 2010 forecast has remained static over the past three months, and ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from May 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

Preliminary report from BLS shows gain of 290,000 jobs in April

By Juli Morris on May 7, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment rose by 290,000 jobs in April, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consensus estimates had predicted a gain of 200,000 jobs. The largest job gains were in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. The April numbers include temporary government hiring for the 2010 Census, representing 66,000 jobs added. These jobs will be lost in the second half of the year. The economy has shed 8.5 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for April, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for February at a gain of 39,000 jobs, up 53,000 from its revised estimate of -14,000. It raised its March preliminary estimate up 68,000 jobs for a revised gain of 230,000 jobs. One more revision for March may still occur.

The unemployment rate jumped unexpectedly, from 9.7 to 9.9 percent; economists had predicted a slight drop.

Preliminary report from BLS shows gain of 162,000 jobs in March

By Juli Morris on April 2, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Labor Market Dynamics.

Employment rose by 162,000 jobs in March, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consensus estimates had predicted a gain of 200,000 jobs. The largest job gains were in temporary help and the health care sector, with losses in finance and information. The March numbers also reflect temporary government hiring for the 2010 Census, representing almost a third of jobs added. The economy has shed nearly 8.5 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for March, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for January at a gain of 14,000 jobs, up 40,000 from its revised estimate of -26,000. It raised its February preliminary estimate up 22,000 jobs for a revised loss of 14,000 jobs. One more revision for February may still occur.

As expected, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent.

BLS reports loss of 85,000 jobs in December, but Gain of 4,000 for November; Construction and Business Services Industries below Growth Trend

By Juli Morris and Charles Thibault on January 8, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment fell by 85,000 in December, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This loss was worse than consensus estimates: major stock market indices lost 0.25% in the first two hours of trading today but stabilized after that.

The unemployment rate held at 10.0 percent — consensus estimates had expected it to rise to 10.1 percent.

The economy has shed 7.4 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Along with the preliminary report for November, the BLS issued its final estimate of 127,000 job losses for October, a worsening of 16,000 from its revised estimate of -111,000. It revised its November preliminary estimate up 15,000 jobs to report gains of 4,000 jobs, which is the one piece of good news from the report. One more revision for November is in the works.

The "culprits" this month were deviations from trends in the Construction industry and in the "Professional and Business Services" industry. Employment losses in the Government sector also contributed to this month's employment declines.

The table below shows how the Construction industry slipped in December, and how employment in the Professional and Business Services industry also fell below trend: Read more »

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 11,000 jobs in November (Updated)

By Juli Morris on December 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment fell by a mere 11,000 jobs in November, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a much smaller loss than consensus estimates. The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help and health care added jobs. The economy has shed 7.3 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for November, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for September at a loss of 139,000 jobs, up 80,000 from its revised estimate of -219,000. It raised its October preliminary estimate up 79,000 jobs for a revised loss of 111,000 jobs. One more revision for October may still occur.

The unemployment rate fell from 10.2 to 10.0 percent; consensus estimates had expected it to remain unchanged.

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 190,000 jobs in October (Updated)

By Juli Morris on November 6, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment fell by 190,000 jobs in October, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an improvement over last month's loss but larger than consensus estimates. The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, and retail. The economy has now shed 7.3 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for October, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for August at a loss of 154,000 jobs, up 47,000 from its revised estimate of -201,000. It raised its September preliminary estimate up 44,000 jobs for a revised loss of 219,000 jobs. One more revision for September may still occur.

The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent, an unexpectedly large jump and the first time the unemployment rate has reached 10 percent since 1983.