The Department of Labor announced this week a rise of 17,000 new UI claims, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This matches the slight fall we saw in our Hiring Demand Indicators .
This week, Hiring Demand grew only 3.9% on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Over the past 5 years, the first week of December usually sees a little bit of a rebound in Hiring Demand. This year's "post-Thanksgiving rebound" was the lowest we've seen in 5 years. This is what drove new UI claims upward. Even last year, when the economy took a huge hit, the first week of December saw Hiring Demand rebound almost 25% after Thanksgiving.
Table: Week-over-Week % Growth, Hiring Demand Indicators, First week of December
| Date | Growth Compared to Prior Week |
|---|---|
| 12/3/2005 | 6.1% |
| 12/2/2006 | 16.0% |
| 12/8/2007 | 6.5% |
| 12/6/2008 | 24.6% |
| 12/5/2009 | 3.9% |
The graph below shows the historical relationship between Hiring Demand Indicators (the number of new online job ads) and seasonally unadjusted Unemployment Insurance claims. The UI claims axes has been inverted: as new job ads appear online, fewer people must file for unemployment insurance. The correlation between the two variables, over the past 4 years, has been -0.72. What's more, the correlation between new UI claims and the one-week lagged value of Hiring Demand improves to -0.78, suggesting that Hiring Demand leads new UI claims.
Click chart to view full size
All Entries