The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 15,400 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in September, after losing a surprisingly low 300 jobs in August (revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 1,000). WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in September, continuing the overall upward trend from its three-year low in March 2009.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -11 percent in September.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in September, continuing the overall upward trend from its three-year low in March 2009.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Even though Transportation Hiring Demand has been rising, as shown on the graph, we are still forecasting a figure that is less optimistic than last month's change. We generally see a positive trend in WANTED's Hiring Demand and relative improvements in employment in the Transportation industry. However, the loss of only 1,000 jobs last month was likely an anomaly when taken in the context of the overall trend.  We believe that this "swing" will be counter-balanced this month, stabilizing the overall trend pattern.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its September Preliminary Estimate for the Transportation and Warehousing sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, October 2, at 8:30 AM.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Last month, Hiring Demand was down 26.4% on a year-over-year basis. This month, Hiring Demand is down 27.2% on a year-over-year basis. Looking at the relative drop of 0.8% on a year-over-year basis is a simple way to control for typical seasonal fluctuations.

There were 44,000 fewer new job ads in August compared to July, on a seasonally unadjusted basis.

Source: WANTED Analytics

The following double bar chart compares year-over-year percent changes in August and July. Burgundy columns (August) that are "shorter" than the gray columns (July) signal relative improvements. Hiring Demand is down from last year for almost all occupations, with the exception of "Healthcare Support Occupations".

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The hardest hit occupation, with a decline of 25.7%, is "Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations". This decline, however, is due to an unusually robust July when Yum! Brands (the corporate structure containing KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and other restaurants) posted an additional 5,000 jobs on its own – the usual posting level is 20,000 job ads a month, so this month's 25% decline parallels last month's spike.

Source: WANTED Analytics

Bright spots include transportation, up 9.1%; Production Occupations, up 5.8%; and Construction, up 2.8%.

Source: WANTED Analytics

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of just 1,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in August, after losing a revised 23,700 jobs in July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in August, after no change in July.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -24 percent in August.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Employment in this industry has fallen by 26,000 workers on average every month for the past 12 months. Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations" was down 60% on a year-over-year basis in both March and April, the worst drops seen in three years.  Correspondingly, Transportation employment dropped by a whopping 43,800 in April, also the worse decline seen in years.

Since then, Hiring Demand has "rebounded", standing at -24 percent on a year-over-year basis for August, a gain of 17 percent over July and an improvement of 37 percent from the three-year low.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its August Preliminary Estimate for the Transportation and Warehousing sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, September 4th, at 8:30 AM.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -41 percent in July. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Employment in this industry has fallen by 25,000 workers on average every month for the past 12 months. Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations" was down 60% on a year-over-year basis in both March and April, the worst drops seen in three years.  Correspondingly, Transportation employment dropped by a whopping 43,800 in April, also the worse decline seen in years.

Since then, employment drops have subsided, to -20,000 in May and -13,900 in July. Hiring Demand has "rebounded", standing at -41% on a year-over-year basis for both June and July, a relative improvement of twenty percentage points.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release industry-level data with the Employment Situation on Friday, August 7th.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted that any growth in tonnage in the third quarter is likely to be slight, but that he also does not expect further deterioration:

“I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, but I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight transportation is ready to explode,” Costello said. “The consumer is still facing too many headwinds, including employment losses, tight credit, rising fuel prices, and falling home values, to name a few, that will make it very difficult for household spending to jump in the near term.”

On July 2nd, the BLS' preliminary report indicated a loss of 13,900 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in June, raising total job losses to 334,000 since employment peaked in December 2007.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

This month's slippage is particularly due to a robust month of May – on a seasonally adjusted basis May's Hiring Demand was up 10% compared to April. Because of May's increase in Hiring Demand, in combination with improving month-over-month declines in Nonfarm Payroll Employment (the revised drop for May was -322,000, whereas April's final number was -519,000), WANTED had forecast an optimistic drop of 260,000 in Nonfarm Payroll Employment. Despite the slight slippage this month, Hiring Demand has moved from "being flat" to starting to show signs of a possible uptrend.

The two time-series charts of new online job ads, one weekly series and one monthly series, show that since the drop off in December, Hiring Demand has been slowly inching up.  (Usually the series "bounces back" in January, but, given the recession, new job ads did not come back to the previous calendar year's level.)  This corresponds to slightly improving UI claims data and slowing in the month-over-month drops in US Employment.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Only three major occupations have shown relative improvement this month, with 20 other occupations showing slippage in Hiring Demand. Sales and Related Occupations improved by 5.7% in June after improving 1.2% in May. Healthcare Support Occupations improved by 1.4% after having improved 6.5% in May. Transportation and Material Moving Occupations improved only marginally by 0.2%, after having seen a decline of 5.6% in May.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The following graph, sourced from WANTED Analytics 2.0, takes a closer look at the top five occupations in terms of job postings. Sales and Related Occupations is the only top five occupation to have improved since last month on a year-over-year basis. Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations are down 6.8%; Management Occupations are down 5.9%; Computer and Mathematical Occupations are down 4.3%; Business and Financial Operations Occupations are down 4.2%. There are usually seasonal declines in Hiring Demand in June compared to May, but year-over-year comparisons remove these seasonal effects.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Looking at the data by geography, the top US markets have also shown progression since January. The top seven US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) have shown robust Hiring Demand through March/April/May/June.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

We can expect continuing losses in US Nonfarm Employment Payroll, but at a slower pace.  As Hiring Demand positions itself to show upward trending, the overall labor market will stabilize, with the hope that employment will start to grow by the end of Q3 2009.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -41 percent in June. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -41 percent in June. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Preliminary May Estimate for the Transportation and Warehousing sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Thursday, July 2, at 8:30 AM.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

In April, tonnage declined 13.2 percent year-over-year, which ATS labeled the largest drop in thirteen years. This follows a 12.2 percent drop in March 2009.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted that it could be a few more months before truck freight hits bottom:

"While most key economic indicators are decreasing at a slower rate, the year-over-year contractions in truck tonnage accelerated because businesses are right-sizing their inventories, which means fewer truck shipments," Costello said. "The absolute dollar value of inventories has fallen, but sales have decreased as much or more, which means that inventories are still too high for the current level of sales. Until this correction is complete, freight will be tough for motor carriers."

On June 5th, the BLS' preliminary report indicated a loss of 14,500 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in May, raising total job losses to 352,000 since employment peaked in December 2007.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 14,500 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in May, a much smaller loss than we've seen in the past two months.  WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in May off of a three-year low in the first quarter of 2009.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -49 percent in May. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

For more graphs, charts and details on WANTED's predictions for the  BLS Employment Situation report, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) has increased its number of IT job postings by 63% in the past month. It posted over 3,900 new IT job ads in April, compared to 2,500 for March. General Dynamics has continued strong activity over the past three weeks as well, posting 2,200 jobs just last week. This uptick in IT job listings is also supported by increases in both the number of Management and Engineering job listings, although the volume for these two occupations is in the 700 range. Most of the jobs are located in the Washington, DC area, and most General Dynamics job postings have recently been seen on CareerJournal and JobServe. General Dynamics stock is up 70% since the 52 week low in early March of this year.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has started recruiting again to levels seen in mid 2008. After three consecutive months of around 5,000 new job ads, Bank of America has posted 8,277 jobs in March and 12,500 jobs in April. A similar number of open jobs were posted in May. Office and Administrative Support positions, Business and Financial Occupations, as well as Management Occupations lead the way. Most Bank of America jobs can be found on America's Job Exchange, JOBCentral, Job Target, and Career Mag. Bank of America stock is up almost five-fold from its 52-week low, experienced on February 20th.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Avon Products (NYSE: AVP) has more than tripled the number of open positions for Sales Occupations, posting 531 job ads during the week of May 17, compared to 140 in each of the previous two weeks. This spike in hiring comes from an increase of 100 on All Retail Jobs and 310 new postings on Regional Help Wanted, after six months of very low activity on that site. Avon stock is up 100% from its 52-week low on March 9, 2009.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

The Dr.Pepper Snapple group has shown a consistent uptick in hiring since March, coinciding with a 100% return on its stock price since the 52-week low on March 9th. It posted 358 jobs in February, 394 in March, then 787 in April, and we expect that it will have posted possibly up to 1,000 new jobs in May, once the May data is closed out. The leading occupations have been Management and Transportation and Material Moving Occupations.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Finally, the US Army has been advertising for an increasing number of Health Care positions since December of 2008, and recent advertising has intensified. It placed around 2,000 to 2,500 new Health Care job ads per month in the fourth quarter of 2008, but posted more than 8,500 new Health Care ads in January, followed by 5,600 in February, 4,900 in March, and 5,400 in April.  We expect more than 6,000 new ads will have been posted in May once that data is compiled. Most job ads are for "Physicians and Surgeons, all other", which point to specialties such as psychiatry or specialized surgeons. The other most frequently posted positions are Registered Nurses, followed by Medical and Health Services Managers. Most of this recent activity has been on a job board called The Job Cure, a Health Care specific site.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -49 percent in May. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Preliminary May Estimate for the Transportation and Warehousing sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, June 5, at 8:30 AM.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation