Transportation Industry – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Transportation Down 15,400 – September 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on October 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 15,400 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in September, after losing a surprisingly low 300 jobs in August (revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 1,000). WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in September, continuing the overall upward trend from its three-year low in March 2009.

Click chart to view full size

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -11 percent in September.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

FORECAST: September 2009 – Transportation Down 7,000

By Juli Morris on September 24, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Based on improving Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations", WANTED predicts the BLS will report a drop of 7,000 workers in the Transportation Industry in September. The BLS reported a surprisingly small loss of 1,000 jobs for August after a drop of 23,000 jobs in July.

WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in September, continuing the overall upward trend from its three-year low in March 2009.

Click chart to view full size

Even though Transportation Hiring Demand has been rising, as shown on the graph, we are still forecasting a figure that is less optimistic than last month's change. We generally see a positive trend in WANTED's Hiring Demand and relative improvements in employment in the Transportation industry. However, the loss of only 1,000 jobs last month was likely an anomaly when taken in the context of the overall trend. We believe that this "swing" will be counter-balanced this month, stabilizing the overall trend pattern.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its September Preliminary Estimate for the Transportation and Warehousing sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, October 2, at 8:30 AM.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Transportation Down 1,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of just 1,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in August, after losing a revised 23,700 jobs in July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in August, after no change in July.

Click chart to view full size

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -24 percent in August.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

FORECAST: August 2009 — Transportation Down 12,200

By Juli Morris on August 27, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Based on improving Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations", WANTED predicts the BLS will report a drop of 12,200 workers in the Transportation Industry in August. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in August, continuing the overall upward trend following a three-year low in the first quarter of 2009.

Click chart to view full size

Employment in this industry has fallen by 26,000 workers on average every month for the past 12 months. Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations" was down 60% on a year-over-year basis in both March and April, the worst drops seen in three years. Correspondingly, Transportation employment dropped by a whopping 43,800 in April, also the worse decline seen in years.

Since then, Hiring Demand has "rebounded", standing at -24 percent on a year-over-year basis for August, a gain of 17 percent over July and an improvement of 37 percent from the three-year low.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its August Preliminary Estimate for the Transportation and Warehousing sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, September 4th, at 8:30 AM.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Transportation Down 22,400 – July 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on August 7, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 22,400 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in July, nearly double the jobs lost in June. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a slight downturn in July, following three consecutive upticks.

Click chart to view full size

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -41 percent in July. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Forecast July 2009 – Transportation Down 2,700

By Charles Thibault on July 29, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Based on improving Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations", WANTED predicts the BLS will report a drop of only 2,700 workers in the Transportation Industry in July (BLS series CES4300000001).

Employment in this industry has fallen by 25,000 workers on average every month for the past 12 months. Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations" was down 60% on a year-over-year basis in both March and April, the worst drops seen in three years. Correspondingly, Transportation employment dropped by a whopping 43,800 in April, also the worse decline seen in years.

Since then, employment drops have subsided, to -20,000 in May and -13,900 in July. Hiring Demand has "rebounded", standing at -41% on a year-over-year basis for both June and July, a relative improvement of twenty percentage points.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release industry-level data with the Employment Situation on Friday, August 7th.

Click chart to view full size

May Truck Tonnage Declines 11 Percent

By Juli Morris on July 10, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

The American Trucking Associations' (ATS) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for May 2009 reported a slight rise, the first since February of this year. In May, tonnage decreased 11 percent year-over-year, an improvement over the 13.2 drop for April.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted that any growth in tonnage in the third quarter is likely to be slight, but that he also does not expect further deterioration:

“I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, but I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight transportation is ready to explode,” Costello said. “The consumer is still facing too many headwinds, including employment losses, tight credit, rising fuel prices, and falling home values, to name a few, that will make it very difficult for household spending to jump in the near term.”

On July 2nd, the BLS' preliminary report indicated a loss of 13,900 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in June, raising total job losses to 334,000 since employment peaked in December 2007.

June '09 Hiring Demand Outlook: Slippage, but Poised for Upward Trending

By Charles Thibault on July 8, 2009 in Hiring Demand Indicators.

Last month we reported that National Hiring Demand was improving in relative terms – year-over-year percent changes improved from -32.6% in April 2009 to -28.4% in May of 2009. Hiring Demand has slipped slightly since last month, with year-over-year percentage changes moving from -27.2% in May to -30.1% in June. (Slight revisions to data cause minor variations in Hiring Demand percent changes when compared to previously published results).

This month's slippage is particularly due to a robust month of May – on a seasonally adjusted basis May's Hiring Demand was up 10% compared to April. Because of May's increase in Hiring Demand, in combination with improving month-over-month declines in Nonfarm Payroll Employment (the revised drop for May was -322,000, whereas April's final number was -519,000), WANTED had forecast an optimistic drop of 260,000 in Nonfarm Payroll Employment. Despite the slight slippage this month, Hiring Demand has moved from "being flat" to starting to show signs of a possible uptrend.

The two time-series charts of new online job ads, one weekly series and one monthly series, show that since the drop off in December, Hiring Demand has been slowly inching up. (Usually the series "bounces back" in January, but, given the recession, new job ads did not come back to the previous calendar year's level.) This corresponds to slightly improving UI claims data and slowing in the month-over-month drops in US Employment.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Transportation Down 13,900 – June 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on July 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 13,900 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in June, a slight smaller loss than last month and the smallest loss since August 2008. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed another strong uptick in June, the third consecutive rise after a three-year low in the first quarter of 2009.

Click chart to view full size

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -41 percent in June. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

« Older Entries