If the stimulus plan works, one of the first areas where we expect to see job growth is in the transportation and warehousing sector. Even before cash moves into construction, the trucking and distribution industry should experience a jump in demand as commodities, raw materials and finished goods make their way to the job sites. Unfortunately however, we have not yet detected any turnaround in transportation and warehouse job ads. And we have reason to believe that we will be able to detect that turnaround in advance.
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As shown in the chart, the number of new ads in the transportation/warehousing sector (NAICS codes 48-49) plummeted in the first few months of the recession, even as the number of actual jobs held steady. We expect employers may exhibit a similarly dramatic increase in the ads they run at the earliest signs that demand for their services is rising.
However, if the declines in ads (and, by extension, actual jobs) continue, that may be an even more troubling sign about the state of the economy than would first appear. That's because long before the recession began the trucking industry in particular was suffering from a driver shortage.
WANTED Technologies forecast a loss of 61,000 jobs in the sector in February. On March 6, BLS reported a loss of 49,300 jobs in transportation for February. WANTED's analysts believe BLS may revise that number lower within the next few weeks. Read more »
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