Based on improving Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations", WANTED predicts the BLS will report a drop of only 2,700 workers in the Transportation Industry in July (BLS series CES4300000001).
Employment in this industry has fallen by 25,000 workers on average every month for the past 12 months. Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations" was down 60% on a year-over-year basis in both March and April, the worst drops seen in three years. Correspondingly, Transportation employment dropped by a whopping 43,800 in April, also the worse decline seen in years.
Since then, employment drops have subsided, to -20,000 in May and -13,900 in July. Hiring Demand has "rebounded", standing at -41% on a year-over-year basis for both June and July, a relative improvement of twenty percentage points.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release industry-level data with the Employment Situation on Friday, August 7th.