Jobs. Trends. Insight. » Recession

Construction and Real Estate See Revenue Growth – Does Employment Too?

Ashley Rowe — Sun, 08 Jul 2012 12:28:22 +0000

Intuit, recently released Small Business Employment and Revenue Indexes. This report shows that small business revenue declined in the following industries:

1. Healthcare and Social Assistance
2. Scientific and Technical Services
3. Retail Trade
4. Accommodation and Food Services

The only industries to post increased revenue were real estate and construction.

Considering that real estate and construction were the only sectors with gains, we looked at job postings in these areas to see if small business revenue growth matches employment growth across these sectors.

As of May 2012, job ads for construction occupations were up 21% and at its highest in 4 years. Dallas, TX was the metro area that showed the most demand.

In May, real estate saw its highest amount of job ads since the recession: 71% increase since January 2009. The increase in revenue for small businesses and the increase in job ads for all sized businesses in this sector indicate that this is an area to watch. This also may indicate that if construction and real estate positions are in demand, more people are buying homes, businesses are expanding, businesses are spending more and the economy is recovering.

Download the WANTED Analytics Whitepaper 10 Ways to Take Advantage of the Hiring Boom to learn how you can take advantage of the road to recovery to fill your next position.

Health Care Up 27,900 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:48:34 +0000

According to today's preliminary report by the BLS, the health care sector gained 27,900 jobs in August. The sector remains one of the few bright spots in the labor market. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Health Care showed a slight decline in August.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Health Care Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–showed a slight decrease this month, but remains flat since the strong uptick last quarter from -27 percent in April to -17 percent in May. The trend in Hiring Demand in Health Care had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in June 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom which appeared to occur in the first quarter of the year.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Finance Down 20,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:45:14 +0000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 20,000 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for August, following a revised loss of 15,100 jobs reported by the BLS for July. Losses of 12,800 loss in the Insurance sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fourth consecutive month, from -32 percent in July to -27 percent in August. Outside of the Insurance sector, the level of job losses has generally been improving over the past several months.

Within the NAICS code subcategories in the Financial sector, Hiring Demand data for NAICS 522, Credit Intermediation and Related Services—the banking industry—showed a 5 percent drop in online job ads, ending four consecutive months of upward trending. BLS reported a loss of 4,900 jobs in August, down from July's revised gain of 400 jobs.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

In NAICS 523, Securities, Commodity Contracts and Other Financial investments — the brokerage community–we saw another strong uptick in Hiring Demand, from -20 percent in July to -12 percent in August. This marks the fourth consecutive month of strong gains in Hiring Demand since April. BLS reported a loss in August of 2,300 jobs, an improvement from its revised July number of -5,000.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The news was bleak today for the Insurance sector. In NAICS 524, Insurance Carriers and Related, August employment fell 12,800 jobs, a new three-year low. Also, July's loss was revised significantly downwards, from 4,800 to 9,400. Hiring Demand data showed a strong uptick in July to -17 percent, up from -31 percent in June, but dropped back 4 percent in August to -21 percent.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Transportation Down 1,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:44:18 +0000

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of just 1,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in August, after losing a revised 23,700 jobs in July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in August, after no change in July.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -24 percent in August.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 216,000 jobs in August (Updated)

Juli Morris — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 13:34:30 +0000

Employment fell by 216,000 jobs in August, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the smallest drop since August 2008. Although the losses are still large in historical terms, the levels continue to lend support to the argument that the employment situation appears to have stabilized. The economy has now shed over 6.9 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Along with the preliminary report for August, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for June at a loss of 463,000 jobs, down 20,000 from its preliminary estimate of -443,000. It also dropped its July revised estimate down 29,000 jobs to a estimated loss of 276,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 27,900 in August. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by just 1,000 in August, and the finance and insurance sector lost 20,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate rose from 9.4 to 9.7 percent, the highest level since June 1983 and significantly higher than the 9.5 percent predicted by most economists.

FORECAST: August 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 190,000 (Update 2)

Juli Morris — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 20:04:21 +0000

WANTED Technologies forecasts that Nonfarm Employment Payroll will drop by 190,000 in August. Last month the BLS reported a decline of 247,000 nonfarm workers.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Hiring Demand is steadily improving but not enough to generate gains in employment – there is no reason to expect any level of hiring which would reverse the current trend in employment. Initial jobless claims have risen by 20,000 over the past two weeks. Although job losses are slowing, year-over-year decreases in Hiring Demand and increases in jobless claims point to another negative report from the BLS.

The BLS will release the 'August Employment Situation' on Friday, September 4th.

On an industry-level, WANTED forecasts a loss of 12,200 jobs in Transportation, a loss of 8,000 jobs in Finance and Insurance, but an increase of 31,900 jobs in Health Care. Each of these industry forecasts is featured in our Industry Forecasts Channel.

Update: The consensus estimate from Thomson/Reuters predicts a decline of 200,000 jobs for August in the September 4th BLS Employment Situation report; TrimTabs Investment Research forecasts a loss of 335,000 jobs.

Further details on forecasts from WANTED and other providers are available on our BLS Forecast page.

job losses
continued in many of the major industry sectors

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 247,000 jobs in July (Updated)

Juli Morris — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:33:54 +0000

Employment fell by 247,000 jobs in July, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July's job losses were significantly lower than the 467,000 loss originally reported for June. Although the losses are large in historical terms, the levels continue to lend support to the argument that the employment situation appears to have stabilized. The economy has now shed over 6.7 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Along with the preliminary report for July, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for May at a loss of 303,000 jobs, up 42,000 from its preliminary estimate of -345,000. It also raised its June revised estimate up 24,000 jobs to a estimated loss of 443,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 19,600 in July. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by 22,400 in May, and the finance and insurance sector lost 12,900 jobs.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped from 9.5 to 9.4 percent—still the highest we've seen since September 1983. Economists still predict rising unemployment well into 2010.

Relief from UI Claims Data

Charles Thibault — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:26:27 +0000

The Department of Labor reported a drop of 38,000 new Unemployment Insurance claims on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 4-week moving average dropped by 4,750 claims, also an improvement.

There had been 30,000 new additional claimants in each of the two preceding releases, which had put the 4-week moving average at risk of hitting an inflection point and moving back in a negative direction. The 4-week moving average is important because the NBER usually identifies the start of the recovery as occurring 8 weeks after the peak in the 4-week moving average of new claims.

On a seasonally unadjusted basis, there were 48,300 fewer claimants. This corresponds to an increase of 120,000 new job ads two weeks ago. Last week, new ads dipped slightly by 31,000 ads. However, the DOL expects an increase of claims on a seasonally unadjusted basis for next week's release, as the seasonal correction parameter will move from 84.2 to 86.0 for the week ending August 8th.

The graph below shows the historical relationship between the number of new UI claims and the the number of new job ads, on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The axes for UI claims has been inverted to facilitate visual interpretation.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Over the past three years, the correlation between new job ads and new UI claims is -0.60. As job ads increase the economy is able to absorb more workers, and new UI claims drop. This is why the correlation has a negative sign. Interestingly, lagging the job ads data by one week improves the historical correlation to -0.65.

Even better, using the 4-week moving average of new job ads and the 4-week moving average of new UI claims, on a seasonally unadjusted basis, pushes the historical correlation to -0.69. Lagging the 4-week summation of job ads by one week improves the correlation to -.70. In other words, not only does the number of new job ads influence UI claims, but this is further evidence that Hiring Demand is a leading economic indicator. Lagging job ads by two weeks drops the correlation back down to -0.69.

UI Claims Jump Even As Hiring Demand Grows

Charles Thibault — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 20:11:41 +0000

The Department of Labor announced this morning that new Unemployment Insurance Claims rose by 25,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis to 559,000, which was a little bit of a surprise.

On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the number of new claims dropped by 78,111. Last week, the number of new job ads jumped by 84,000 on a seasonally unadjusted basis. As new job ads increase, more workers are absorbed into the labor force, reducing UI claims.

The 4-week moving average dropped by 8,250 claims. However, this week's jump puts the 4-week moving average very close to reversing its "improving" trend. If next week's release puts new UI claims above 569,000, the 4-week moving average will increase, reversing the trend. Remember that the NBER has identified the "start" of the recovery period as occuring 8 weeks after the peak in new UI claims in the past several recessions. Stock markets have been bullish, however.

Our Hiring Demand Indicators saw some slight weakness in mid-July, but have picked up since then. Given last week's improvement in the number of new job ads, and stability in the seasonal correction coeficients for next week, we expect that new UI claims will fall next week on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Forecast July 2009 – Finance down 14,400

Charles Thibault — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 14:41:25 +0000

Based on slowing year-over-year drops in Hiring Demand in the financial sector, WANTED's forecasting models predict that employment will drop by only 14,400 workers in the Finance and Insurance Industry in July (BLS series CES5552000001). Hiring Demand is down 32% compared to last year. Last month this industry lost 18,200 jobs when Hiring Demand was down 36%.

WANTED also forecasts employment in three detailed financial industry segments, each of which is reviewed below. Financial sector job losses are concentrated in the "Credit Intermediation and Related Activities" segment, where we forecast a reduction of 10,800 workers. WANTED predicts that the BLS will report only very minimal losses in both the "Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments" and "Insurance Carriers and Related Activities" segments.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Hiring Demand in the "Credit Intermediation and Related Activities" segment has improved in relative terms but not fast enough – Hiring Demand has only improved six percentage points since last month, down 25.6% from last year. We predict job losses of 10,800 workers in this segment (BLS series CES5552200001). Last month, this segment lost 10,200 jobs with Hiring Demand down 31.6%.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Employment in the "Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments" segment is finally in a position where job losses may come to an end. We predict losses of only 200 jobs in this segment (BLS series CES5552300001).

The largest job losses were in February and March 2009 when this segment lost a total 18,600 jobs.

Hiring Demand has been steadily improving on a year-over-year basis, going from -51% in April, to -41% in May, to -35% in June, and finally to -20% in July.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

WANTED also predicts that job losses will almost start coming to an end in the "Insurance Carriers and Related Activities" segment too. We forecast a reduction of only 100 workers in this industry segment (BLS series CES5552400001).

Job losses in this industry segment were at their worst in November 2008, when 10,100 workers were shed. Hiring Demand was at -40% at that date. After having lost 7,100 workers with Hiring Demand down 32% in May, and losing only 800 workers with Hiring Demand down 30.75% in June, we can think that with Hiring Demand down 17.6% this month that this industry segment may start to generate employment gains by summer's end.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Forecast July 2009 – Transportation Down 2,700

Charles Thibault — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:30:35 +0000

Based on improving Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations", WANTED predicts the BLS will report a drop of only 2,700 workers in the Transportation Industry in July (BLS series CES4300000001).

Employment in this industry has fallen by 25,000 workers on average every month for the past 12 months. Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations" was down 60% on a year-over-year basis in both March and April, the worst drops seen in three years. Correspondingly, Transportation employment dropped by a whopping 43,800 in April, also the worse decline seen in years.

Since then, employment drops have subsided, to -20,000 in May and -13,900 in July. Hiring Demand has "rebounded", standing at -41% on a year-over-year basis for both June and July, a relative improvement of twenty percentage points.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release industry-level data with the Employment Situation on Friday, August 7th.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Forecast July 2009 – Health Care up 28,600

Charles Thibault — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:41:40 +0000

Based on slightly improving Hiring Demand for Health Care workers, WANTED forecasts an employment increase of 28,600 in the Health Care sector for July (BLS data series CES6562000101). The BLS will release industry-level employment figures on Friday, August 7th along with the Employment Situation.

Despite weakening Hiring Demand throughout 2009, the Health Care industry has remained fairly robust, adding an average 26,000 workers per month over the last year.

The year-over-year change in Hiring Demand for Health Care is now -14.4%, a relative improvement of 2.35% compared to last month. The BLS reported an increase in Health Care employment of 20,800 in June. Recent improvements in Hiring Demand in this industry are driving our forecast of 28,600.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

FORECAST: July 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 440,000 (Update 2)

Charles Thibault — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 00:04:18 +0000

Based on weakening Hiring Demand and an increase in new Unemployment Insurance Claims, WANTED Technologies forecasts that Nonfarm Employment Payroll will drop by 440,000 in July. The BLS will release the July Employment Situation on Friday, August 7th.

Last month, the BLS reported a loss of 467,000 nonfarm jobs, citing "widespread" job losses in major industries.

Hiring Demand has decreased by 3% since last month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Last month Hiring Demand was up 2%, which drove an optimistic forecast. Although Hiring Demand has stabilized, it has not picked up enough to generate gains in employment.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

On an industry-level, WANTED forecasts a loss of 2,700 jobs in Transportation, a loss of 14,400 job in Finance and Insurance, but an increase of 28,600 jobs in Health Care. Each of these industry forecasts is featured on our blog.

Update: The consensus estimate from Thomson/Reuters predicts a decline of 300,000 jobs for July in the August 7th BLS Employment Situation report; TrimTabs Investment Research forecasts a loss of 488,000 jobs.

Further details on forecasts from WANTED and other providers are available on our BLS Forecast page.

Unemployment Insurance Claims Still Signaling Some Weakness

Charles Thibault — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 20:51:21 +0000

The Department of Labor announced this morning that new Unemployment Insurance claims rose by 30,000 from last week's level on a seasonally adjusted basis, pointing to some continued weakness and volatility in the US labor market. There were 554,000 new UI claims last week.

Continued claims dropped by 88,000 claimants to 6,225,000. Two weeks ago, new claims had dropped by 45,000, which lowered last week's continued claims. We can expect seasonally adjusted continued claims to increase following this week's jump in new UI claims.

The 4-week moving average of new UI claims dropped by 19,000 claimants. This points to a somewhat improving economy, but an increase in new UI claims to a level above 617,000 in next week's report would change the trend in the 4-week moving average.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Fortune 1000 Hiring Demand Remains Flat

Charles Thibault — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 21:18:27 +0000

Hiring Demand by Fortune 1000 companies remained consistent with the prior month, according to data from WANTED's Fortune 1000 report. WANTED's report measures new job ads for America's largest corporations. A month ago, the Fortune 1000 showed a year-over-year drop of 24.6% in Hiring Demand.

247 of the 1000 largest US corporations showed improvements in Hiring Demand, unchanged since last month.

On a Sector basis:

- Hiring Demand of "Wholesale Trade" companies (NAICS 42) is up by thirty-seven percentage points, posting a 24% year-over-year increase compared to last month's year-over-year drop of 13.2%.

- Health Care is the only sector to show consistent and robust growth in Hiring Demand. Health Care sector Hiring Demand is up 26.8% compared to last year. Last month, Hiring Demand was up 34.6% on a year-over-year basis.

- Hiring Demand of "Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services" companies (NAICS 54) dropped by twenty percentage points, going from -13.2% to -33.9% on a year-over-year basis.

The following table summarizes the sector highlights:

Source: WANTED Fortune 1000 Report

On a Company-by-Company basis:

- Bank of America stock (NYSE: BAC) has dropped almost 5% in today's trading, forewarned by declining Hiring Demand after three months of growth in both demand for new employees and stock price.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

- Macy's (NYSE: M) is displaying growth in both Hiring Demand and stock price.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

- McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) stock is up 11.5% since March 9, 2009. Last week, McDonald's corporation showed a significant upward spike in Hiring Demand.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0