Recession – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Health Care Up 27,900 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Health Care.

According to today's preliminary report by the BLS, the health care sector gained 27,900 jobs in August. The sector remains one of the few bright spots in the labor market. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Health Care showed a slight decline in August.

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The Health Care Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–showed a slight decrease this month, but remains flat since the strong uptick last quarter from -27 percent in April to -17 percent in May. The trend in Hiring Demand in Health Care had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in June 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom which appeared to occur in the first quarter of the year.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Finance Down 20,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 20,000 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for August, following a revised loss of 15,100 jobs reported by the BLS for July. Losses of 12,800 loss in the Insurance sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fourth consecutive month, from -32 percent in July to -27 percent in August. Outside of the Insurance sector, the level of job losses has generally been improving over the past several months.
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Transportation Down 1,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of just 1,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in August, after losing a revised 23,700 jobs in July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in August, after no change in July.

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The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -24 percent in August.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 216,000 jobs in August (Updated)

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment fell by 216,000 jobs in August, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the smallest drop since August 2008. Although the losses are still large in historical terms, the levels continue to lend support to the argument that the employment situation appears to have stabilized. The economy has now shed over 6.9 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for August, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for June at a loss of 463,000 jobs, down 20,000 from its preliminary estimate of -443,000. It also dropped its July revised estimate down 29,000 jobs to a estimated loss of 276,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 27,900 in August. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by just 1,000 in August, and the finance and insurance sector lost 20,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate rose from 9.4 to 9.7 percent, the highest level since June 1983 and significantly higher than the 9.5 percent predicted by most economists.

FORECAST: August 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 190,000 (Update 2)

By Juli Morris on August 24, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

WANTED Technologies forecasts that Nonfarm Employment Payroll will drop by 190,000 in August. Last month the BLS reported a decline of 247,000 nonfarm workers.

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Hiring Demand is steadily improving but not enough to generate gains in employment – there is no reason to expect any level of hiring which would reverse the current trend in employment. Initial jobless claims have risen by 20,000 over the past two weeks. Although job losses are slowing, year-over-year decreases in Hiring Demand and increases in jobless claims point to another negative report from the BLS.

The BLS will release the 'August Employment Situation' on Friday, September 4th.

On an industry-level, WANTED forecasts a loss of 12,200 jobs in Transportation, a loss of 8,000 jobs in Finance and Insurance, but an increase of 31,900 jobs in Health Care. Each of these industry forecasts is featured in our Industry Forecasts Channel.

Update: The consensus estimate from Thomson/Reuters predicts a decline of 200,000 jobs for August in the September 4th BLS Employment Situation report; TrimTabs Investment Research forecasts a loss of 335,000 jobs.

Further details on forecasts from WANTED and other providers are available on our BLS Forecast page.

job losses
continued in many of the major industry sectors

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 247,000 jobs in July (Updated)

By Juli Morris on August 7, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment fell by 247,000 jobs in July, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July's job losses were significantly lower than the 467,000 loss originally reported for June. Although the losses are large in historical terms, the levels continue to lend support to the argument that the employment situation appears to have stabilized. The economy has now shed over 6.7 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for July, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for May at a loss of 303,000 jobs, up 42,000 from its preliminary estimate of -345,000. It also raised its June revised estimate up 24,000 jobs to a estimated loss of 443,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 19,600 in July. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by 22,400 in May, and the finance and insurance sector lost 12,900 jobs.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped from 9.5 to 9.4 percent—still the highest we've seen since September 1983. Economists still predict rising unemployment well into 2010.

Relief from UI Claims Data

By Charles Thibault on August 6, 2009 in Unemployment Insurance Claims.

The Department of Labor reported a drop of 38,000 new Unemployment Insurance claims on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 4-week moving average dropped by 4,750 claims, also an improvement.

There had been 30,000 new additional claimants in each of the two preceding releases, which had put the 4-week moving average at risk of hitting an inflection point and moving back in a negative direction. The 4-week moving average is important because the NBER usually identifies the start of the recovery as occurring 8 weeks after the peak in the 4-week moving average of new claims.

On a seasonally unadjusted basis, there were 48,300 fewer claimants. This corresponds to an increase of 120,000 new job ads two weeks ago. Last week, new ads dipped slightly by 31,000 ads. However, the DOL expects an increase of claims on a seasonally unadjusted basis for next week's release, as the seasonal correction parameter will move from 84.2 to 86.0 for the week ending August 8th.

The graph below shows the historical relationship between the number of new UI claims and the the number of new job ads, on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The axes for UI claims has been inverted to facilitate visual interpretation.

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UI Claims Jump Even As Hiring Demand Grows

By Charles Thibault on July 30, 2009 in Unemployment Insurance Claims.

The Department of Labor announced this morning that new Unemployment Insurance Claims rose by 25,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis to 559,000, which was a little bit of a surprise.

On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the number of new claims dropped by 78,111. Last week, the number of new job ads jumped by 84,000 on a seasonally unadjusted basis. As new job ads increase, more workers are absorbed into the labor force, reducing UI claims.

The 4-week moving average dropped by 8,250 claims. However, this week's jump puts the 4-week moving average very close to reversing its "improving" trend. If next week's release puts new UI claims above 569,000, the 4-week moving average will increase, reversing the trend. Remember that the NBER has identified the "start" of the recovery period as occuring 8 weeks after the peak in new UI claims in the past several recessions. Stock markets have been bullish, however.

Our Hiring Demand Indicators saw some slight weakness in mid-July, but have picked up since then. Given last week's improvement in the number of new job ads, and stability in the seasonal correction coeficients for next week, we expect that new UI claims will fall next week on a seasonally adjusted basis.

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Forecast July 2009 – Finance down 14,400

By Charles Thibault on July 30, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

Based on slowing year-over-year drops in Hiring Demand in the financial sector, WANTED's forecasting models predict that employment will drop by only 14,400 workers in the Finance and Insurance Industry in July (BLS series CES5552000001). Hiring Demand is down 32% compared to last year. Last month this industry lost 18,200 jobs when Hiring Demand was down 36%.

WANTED also forecasts employment in three detailed financial industry segments, each of which is reviewed below. Financial sector job losses are concentrated in the "Credit Intermediation and Related Activities" segment, where we forecast a reduction of 10,800 workers. WANTED predicts that the BLS will report only very minimal losses in both the "Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments" and "Insurance Carriers and Related Activities" segments.

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Hiring Demand in the "Credit Intermediation and Related Activities" segment has improved in relative terms but not fast enough – Hiring Demand has only improved six percentage points since last month, down 25.6% from last year. We predict job losses of 10,800 workers in this segment (BLS series CES5552200001). Last month, this segment lost 10,200 jobs with Hiring Demand down 31.6%.

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Forecast July 2009 – Transportation Down 2,700

By Charles Thibault on July 29, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Based on improving Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations", WANTED predicts the BLS will report a drop of only 2,700 workers in the Transportation Industry in July (BLS series CES4300000001).

Employment in this industry has fallen by 25,000 workers on average every month for the past 12 months. Hiring Demand for "Transportation and Material Moving Occupations" was down 60% on a year-over-year basis in both March and April, the worst drops seen in three years. Correspondingly, Transportation employment dropped by a whopping 43,800 in April, also the worse decline seen in years.

Since then, employment drops have subsided, to -20,000 in May and -13,900 in July. Hiring Demand has "rebounded", standing at -41% on a year-over-year basis for both June and July, a relative improvement of twenty percentage points.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release industry-level data with the Employment Situation on Friday, August 7th.

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