Jobs. Trends. Insight. » Job Losses

October 2009 BLS Nonfarm Employment Forecast – Down 224,000

Charles Thibault — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:52:10 +0000

Based on improving labor dynamics, WANTED Technologies expects that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce a job loss of 224,000 workers for October 2009.

Last month, the BLS reported nonfarm employment losses of 263,000.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Several factors contribute to another negative employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but with fewer job losses:

There has been a 'positive trend' in job loss figures over the past 8 months. Nonfarm job losses have diminished an average 72,000 a month over the past 8 months.

There were 88,000 fewer new UI Claims over the past month.

More people are being separated from their jobs than are being hired into a new one, according to the BLS's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. However, the gap between the number of Hires and Separations has been shrinking by 62,000 workers a month over the past 8 months, and was -198,000 in August 2009.

Hiring Demand has grown an average 0.7% a week over the past 8 months. However, the number of online job ads slipped by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis over the mid-month to mid-month period on major national job boards. The number of online job ads did not pick up as much in the second half of September as we would have been expected. Had there been a spike in the number of online job ads, WANTED would have forecast fewer job losses.

The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 6, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

Finance Down 8,800 – September 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 21:30:55 +0000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 8,800 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for September, following a revised loss of 18,200 jobs reported by the BLS for August. Losses of 7,400 jobs in the Banking sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fifth consecutive month, from -27 percent in August to -25 percent in September.

Within the NAICS code subcategories in the Financial sector, Hiring Demand data for NAICS 522, Credit Intermediation and Related Services—the banking industry—showed a 9 percent rise in online job ads, regaining the upward trending we've seen since April. BLS reported a loss of 7,400 jobs in September, and revised its August loss downward from 4,900 to 9,700. July's gain of 400 jobs was also revised into negative territory, with a loss of 1,900 jobs.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

In NAICS 523, Securities, Commodity Contracts and Other Financial investments — the brokerage community–September employment registered no change, while the August loss of 2,300 jobs was revised upward to a loss of 1,800. While Hiring Demand data showed a 24 percent year-over-year decline in the number of online jobs in September, this drop was generated by a spike in job ads in September 2008.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Today's news was a great improvement for the Insurance sector. In NAICS 524, Insurance Carriers and Related, September employment fell just 1,000 jobs, and August's loss was revised significantly upwards, from 12,800 to 6,900. July's loss also saw a significant positive revision, from 9,400 to 5,400. Hiring Demand data showed a solid uptick in September, from -21 percent to -16 percent.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Transportation Down 15,400 – September 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 21:26:47 +0000

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 15,400 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in September, after losing a surprisingly low 300 jobs in August (revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 1,000). WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in September, continuing the overall upward trend from its three-year low in March 2009.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -11 percent in September.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 263,000 jobs in September (Updated)

Juli Morris — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:21:05 +0000

Employment fell by 263,000 jobs in September, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unexpectedly large decline following two months of relative improvement. The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and government. The economy has now shed 7.2 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Along with the preliminary report for September, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for July at a loss of 304,000 jobs, down 28,000 from its revised estimate of -276,000. It raised its August preliminary estimate up 15,000 jobs for a revised loss of 201,000 jobs. One more revision for August may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 19,200 in September. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by 15,400 in September, and the finance and insurance sector lost 8,800 jobs.

As expected, the unemployment rate rose from 9.7 to 9.8 percent, the highest level since June 1983.

FORECAST: September 2009 – Finance Down 7,700

Charles Thibault — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 20:20:39 +0000

WANTED Technologies forecasts that the BLS will announce an loss of 7,700 workers in the Finance and Insurance industry in September (NAICS supersector 52). Last month, the Finance and Insurance industry lost 20,000 workers.

The number of online job ads for Financial Specialists grew by 7.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last month, after declining 2% in August. This improvement in Hiring Demand dampens job losses but is not strong enough to produce gains in employment.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Preliminary August Estimate for the Finance and Insurance sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, October 2, at 8:30 AM.

WANTED Technologies also forecasts employment counts within selected industry sub-groups. We forecast losses of 1,600 workers in the Credit Intermediation sector (NAICS 522), a loss of only 300 workers in the Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments sector (NAICS 523), and a loss of 6,600 workers in Insurance Carriers (NAICS 524).

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

We forecast a relative improvement in the Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments sector despite worsening year-over-yer declines in Hiring Demand. This month's 24% year-over-year decline in the number of online jobs was generated by a spike in job ads in September 2008.

In fact, the brightest spot in the financial sector is the turnaround in investment activities. The stock market has rallied 56% since March 9th. The number of online job ads for "Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents" totaled 4,800 last week, whereas there were only 1,400 when the market rally started in early March 2009.

Securities, Commodity Contracts… (523):

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Source: WANTED Analytics

Just as last month, job losses in the "Finance and Insurance" industry are concentrated in Insurance Carriers (524):

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Finance Down 20,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:45:14 +0000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 20,000 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for August, following a revised loss of 15,100 jobs reported by the BLS for July. Losses of 12,800 loss in the Insurance sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fourth consecutive month, from -32 percent in July to -27 percent in August. Outside of the Insurance sector, the level of job losses has generally been improving over the past several months.

Within the NAICS code subcategories in the Financial sector, Hiring Demand data for NAICS 522, Credit Intermediation and Related Services—the banking industry—showed a 5 percent drop in online job ads, ending four consecutive months of upward trending. BLS reported a loss of 4,900 jobs in August, down from July's revised gain of 400 jobs.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

In NAICS 523, Securities, Commodity Contracts and Other Financial investments — the brokerage community–we saw another strong uptick in Hiring Demand, from -20 percent in July to -12 percent in August. This marks the fourth consecutive month of strong gains in Hiring Demand since April. BLS reported a loss in August of 2,300 jobs, an improvement from its revised July number of -5,000.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The news was bleak today for the Insurance sector. In NAICS 524, Insurance Carriers and Related, August employment fell 12,800 jobs, a new three-year low. Also, July's loss was revised significantly downwards, from 4,800 to 9,400. Hiring Demand data showed a strong uptick in July to -17 percent, up from -31 percent in June, but dropped back 4 percent in August to -21 percent.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Transportation Down 1,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:44:18 +0000

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of just 1,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in August, after losing a revised 23,700 jobs in July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in August, after no change in July.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -24 percent in August.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 216,000 jobs in August (Updated)

Juli Morris — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 13:34:30 +0000

Employment fell by 216,000 jobs in August, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the smallest drop since August 2008. Although the losses are still large in historical terms, the levels continue to lend support to the argument that the employment situation appears to have stabilized. The economy has now shed over 6.9 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Along with the preliminary report for August, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for June at a loss of 463,000 jobs, down 20,000 from its preliminary estimate of -443,000. It also dropped its July revised estimate down 29,000 jobs to a estimated loss of 276,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 27,900 in August. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by just 1,000 in August, and the finance and insurance sector lost 20,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate rose from 9.4 to 9.7 percent, the highest level since June 1983 and significantly higher than the 9.5 percent predicted by most economists.

WSJ Job Loss Forecast Improves – Unemployment Rate Forecast Remains Bleak

Juli Morris — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 13:36:12 +0000

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in August predict that the U.S. economy will lose an average of 27,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months, significantly better than the 70,000 average monthly losses they forecast for July. This is the fifth consecutive survey predicting declining monthly losses. Despite the declining losses, the outlook for the unemployment rate has improved only slightly, from 10 percent to 9.9 percent for December 2009, and from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent for December 2010.

A better-than-expected employment report for July, where employers cut 247,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell for the first time in 15 months, suggests the worst is over. The unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 9.9% by December, but economists forecast that the economy will shed far fewer jobs over the next 12 months than they had forecast last month.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from August 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

How Can Employment Fall While Hiring Demand Increases?

Charles Thibault — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 21:12:20 +0000

We reported on our blog that Hiring Demand increased 2.4% in July even as Employment fell by 247,000 non-farm workers. How can Employment fall if Hiring Demand is on the rise?

Changes in Employment are driven by two processes – Exits and Hires. In fact, we can construct a "Job Accounting Identity":

Change in Employment = Hires – Exits

If 10 people are hired but 20 people exit, the change in employment is -10 (10 – 20 = -10). If 20 people enter the labor force but only 10 leave, then the change in employment is +10 (20 – 10 = 10). More people entering the workforce than leaving is what generates gains in employment.

There are different types of Job Exits. On one hand, there is "natural turnover" in the labor market: maternity leaves, retirements, or promotions are all normal events which can produce a job vacancy. Layoffs, on the other hand, are driven by the economic cycle. Both the normal course of business and cyclical factors drive people to "exit" their jobs.

Abstracting away from cyclical factors (i.e. layoffs), the following example will help clarify how Hiring Demand can grow even as Nonfarm Employment falls. We set the level of initial employment at 1,000 workers and the monthly "turnover rate" at 4% (which is pretty close to the actual monthly turnover rate of the US labor force). The number of Hires grows by 10% every month, but starting from a level that produces employment losses. Even at a constant 4% turnover rate and a 10% growth in Hiring, it still takes the economy 6 months to generate gains in employment.

In other words, Hiring Demand can continue to grow, but as long as it remains below the replacement level Total Nonfarm Employment will continue to shrink.

Finance Down 12,900 – July 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 20:08:07 +0000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 12,900 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for July, following a revised loss of 19,600 jobs reported by the BLS for June. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Financial Services showed another solid uptick in July, coming off of a three-year low in April.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the third consecutive month, from -37 percent in June to -32 percent in July. The trend in Hiring Demand in Financial Services had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in March 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom that appeared to occur in April at -48 percent.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Within the NAICS code subcategories in the Financial sector, Hiring Demand data for NAICS 522, Credit Intermediation and Related Services—the banking industry—showed a strong tick upward in online job ads, marking four consecutive months of upward trending. BLS reported a loss of 2,200 jobs in July, a solid improvement over June's revised loss of 10,700.

In NAICS 523, Securities, Commodity Contracts and Other Financial investments — the brokerage community–we saw a strong upturn in Hiring Demand, from -35 percent in June to -20 percent in July. This marks the third consecutive strong uptick in Hiring Demand since April. BLS reported a loss in July of 4,400 jobs, an improvement from its revised June number of -7,100.

In NAICS 524, Insurance Carriers and Related, July employment fell 4,800 jobs, a greater loss than the prior month's revised loss of 3,100 and much less than the trough that occurred in December 2008 at a loss of 10,100 jobs. Hiring Demand data showed a strong uptick in July to -18 percent, up from -31 percent in June, continuing the overall upward trend we've seen since the three-year low in January 2009.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Transportation Down 22,400 – July 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

Juli Morris — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 20:07:39 +0000

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 22,400 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in July, nearly double the jobs lost in June. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a slight downturn in July, following three consecutive upticks.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -41 percent in July. The trend in Hiring Demand in Transportation had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in December 2007, at the onset of the recession.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

IT Occupations Slip 5.7% in July

Charles Thibault — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 22:17:38 +0000

Hiring Demand for IT Occupations slipped 5.7% on a year-over-year basis compared to last month. Nine of the ten IT occupations classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed decline.

Compared to last year, Hiring Demand for IT occupations is down 35.7%. It was down only 30% last month. "Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts", which had been relatively spared so far, saw the largest relative drop in Hiring Demand, falling 9% to -18.2% compared to a year ago.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Only "Computer and Information Research Scientists" have shown growth. However, IT research scientists represent less than 1% of all IT workers. Since this is a small and highly specialized group, Hiring Demand for these workers has usually displayed more variance.

The bright news is that despite this slight setback, Hiring Demand has been steady after completely missing the usual January "rebound in hiring". Even though Hiring Demand is half of what it was in January 2008, it has at least stabilized.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

WSJ Job Loss Forecast Slightly Better – Unemployment Rate Forecast Remains Bleak

Juli Morris — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 21:14:33 +0000

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in July predict that the U.S. economy will lose an average of 70,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months, less than the 86,000 average monthly losses they forecast in June. This is the fourth consecutive survey predicting declining monthly losses. Despite the declining losses, the outlook for the unemployment rate looks increasingly dire:

On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010. "The mother of all jobless recoveries is coming down the pike," said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics. But he doesn't favor more stimulus now, saying "lags in monetary and fiscal policy actions" should be allowed to "work through the system."

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists, conducted July 2-7, reveals that economists' view of the employment outlook has again improved over the past month. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

June '09 Hiring Demand Outlook: Slippage, but Poised for Upward Trending

Charles Thibault — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:15:35 +0000

Last month we reported that National Hiring Demand was improving in relative terms – year-over-year percent changes improved from -32.6% in April 2009 to -28.4% in May of 2009. Hiring Demand has slipped slightly since last month, with year-over-year percentage changes moving from -27.2% in May to -30.1% in June. (Slight revisions to data cause minor variations in Hiring Demand percent changes when compared to previously published results).

This month's slippage is particularly due to a robust month of May – on a seasonally adjusted basis May's Hiring Demand was up 10% compared to April. Because of May's increase in Hiring Demand, in combination with improving month-over-month declines in Nonfarm Payroll Employment (the revised drop for May was -322,000, whereas April's final number was -519,000), WANTED had forecast an optimistic drop of 260,000 in Nonfarm Payroll Employment. Despite the slight slippage this month, Hiring Demand has moved from "being flat" to starting to show signs of a possible uptrend.

The two time-series charts of new online job ads, one weekly series and one monthly series, show that since the drop off in December, Hiring Demand has been slowly inching up. (Usually the series "bounces back" in January, but, given the recession, new job ads did not come back to the previous calendar year's level.) This corresponds to slightly improving UI claims data and slowing in the month-over-month drops in US Employment.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Only three major occupations have shown relative improvement this month, with 20 other occupations showing slippage in Hiring Demand. Sales and Related Occupations improved by 5.7% in June after improving 1.2% in May. Healthcare Support Occupations improved by 1.4% after having improved 6.5% in May. Transportation and Material Moving Occupations improved only marginally by 0.2%, after having seen a decline of 5.6% in May.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The following graph, sourced from WANTED Analytics 2.0, takes a closer look at the top five occupations in terms of job postings. Sales and Related Occupations is the only top five occupation to have improved since last month on a year-over-year basis. Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations are down 6.8%; Management Occupations are down 5.9%; Computer and Mathematical Occupations are down 4.3%; Business and Financial Operations Occupations are down 4.2%. There are usually seasonal declines in Hiring Demand in June compared to May, but year-over-year comparisons remove these seasonal effects.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Looking at the data by geography, the top US markets have also shown progression since January. The top seven US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) have shown robust Hiring Demand through March/April/May/June.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

We can expect continuing losses in US Nonfarm Employment Payroll, but at a slower pace. As Hiring Demand positions itself to show upward trending, the overall labor market will stabilize, with the hope that employment will start to grow by the end of Q3 2009.