Job Losses – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

October 2009 BLS Nonfarm Employment Forecast – Down 224,000

By Charles Thibault on October 25, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Based on improving labor dynamics, WANTED Technologies expects that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce a job loss of 224,000 workers for October 2009.

Last month, the BLS reported nonfarm employment losses of 263,000.

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Several factors contribute to another negative employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but with fewer job losses:

There has been a 'positive trend' in job loss figures over the past 8 months. Nonfarm job losses have diminished an average 72,000 a month over the past 8 months.

There were 88,000 fewer new UI Claims over the past month.

More people are being separated from their jobs than are being hired into a new one, according to the BLS's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. However, the gap between the number of Hires and Separations has been shrinking by 62,000 workers a month over the past 8 months, and was -198,000 in August 2009.

Hiring Demand has grown an average 0.7% a week over the past 8 months. However, the number of online job ads slipped by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis over the mid-month to mid-month period on major national job boards. The number of online job ads did not pick up as much in the second half of September as we would have been expected. Had there been a spike in the number of online job ads, WANTED would have forecast fewer job losses.

The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 6, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

Finance Down 8,800 – September 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on October 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 8,800 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for September, following a revised loss of 18,200 jobs reported by the BLS for August. Losses of 7,400 jobs in the Banking sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fifth consecutive month, from -27 percent in August to -25 percent in September.
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Transportation Down 15,400 – September 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on October 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 15,400 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in September, after losing a surprisingly low 300 jobs in August (revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 1,000). WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in September, continuing the overall upward trend from its three-year low in March 2009.

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The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -11 percent in September.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 263,000 jobs in September (Updated)

By Juli Morris on October 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment fell by 263,000 jobs in September, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unexpectedly large decline following two months of relative improvement. The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and government. The economy has now shed 7.2 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for September, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for July at a loss of 304,000 jobs, down 28,000 from its revised estimate of -276,000. It raised its August preliminary estimate up 15,000 jobs for a revised loss of 201,000 jobs. One more revision for August may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 19,200 in September. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by 15,400 in September, and the finance and insurance sector lost 8,800 jobs.

As expected, the unemployment rate rose from 9.7 to 9.8 percent, the highest level since June 1983.

FORECAST: September 2009 – Finance Down 7,700

By Charles Thibault on September 28, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

WANTED Technologies forecasts that the BLS will announce an loss of 7,700 workers in the Finance and Insurance industry in September (NAICS supersector 52). Last month, the Finance and Insurance industry lost 20,000 workers.

The number of online job ads for Financial Specialists grew by 7.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last month, after declining 2% in August. This improvement in Hiring Demand dampens job losses but is not strong enough to produce gains in employment.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Preliminary August Estimate for the Finance and Insurance sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, October 2, at 8:30 AM.

WANTED Technologies also forecasts employment counts within selected industry sub-groups. We forecast losses of 1,600 workers in the Credit Intermediation sector (NAICS 522), a loss of only 300 workers in the Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments sector (NAICS 523), and a loss of 6,600 workers in Insurance Carriers (NAICS 524).

Finance Down 20,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 20,000 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for August, following a revised loss of 15,100 jobs reported by the BLS for July. Losses of 12,800 loss in the Insurance sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fourth consecutive month, from -32 percent in July to -27 percent in August. Outside of the Insurance sector, the level of job losses has generally been improving over the past several months.
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Transportation Down 1,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of just 1,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in August, after losing a revised 23,700 jobs in July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in August, after no change in July.

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The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -24 percent in August.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Preliminary report from BLS shows decline of 216,000 jobs in August (Updated)

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment fell by 216,000 jobs in August, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the smallest drop since August 2008. Although the losses are still large in historical terms, the levels continue to lend support to the argument that the employment situation appears to have stabilized. The economy has now shed over 6.9 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

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Along with the preliminary report for August, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for June at a loss of 463,000 jobs, down 20,000 from its preliminary estimate of -443,000. It also dropped its July revised estimate down 29,000 jobs to a estimated loss of 276,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 27,900 in August. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by just 1,000 in August, and the finance and insurance sector lost 20,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate rose from 9.4 to 9.7 percent, the highest level since June 1983 and significantly higher than the 9.5 percent predicted by most economists.

WSJ Job Loss Forecast Improves – Unemployment Rate Forecast Remains Bleak

By Juli Morris on August 19, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in August predict that the U.S. economy will lose an average of 27,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months, significantly better than the 70,000 average monthly losses they forecast for July. This is the fifth consecutive survey predicting declining monthly losses. Despite the declining losses, the outlook for the unemployment rate has improved only slightly, from 10 percent to 9.9 percent for December 2009, and from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent for December 2010.

A better-than-expected employment report for July, where employers cut 247,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell for the first time in 15 months, suggests the worst is over. The unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 9.9% by December, but economists forecast that the economy will shed far fewer jobs over the next 12 months than they had forecast last month.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from August 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

How Can Employment Fall While Hiring Demand Increases?

By Charles Thibault on August 17, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

We reported on our blog that Hiring Demand increased 2.4% in July even as Employment fell by 247,000 non-farm workers. How can Employment fall if Hiring Demand is on the rise?

Changes in Employment are driven by two processes – Exits and Hires. In fact, we can construct a "Job Accounting Identity":

Change in Employment = Hires – Exits

If 10 people are hired but 20 people exit, the change in employment is -10 (10 – 20 = -10). If 20 people enter the labor force but only 10 leave, then the change in employment is +10 (20 – 10 = 10). More people entering the workforce than leaving is what generates gains in employment.

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