Job Gains – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Health Care Up 19,200 – September 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on October 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Health Care.

According to today's preliminary report by the BLS, the health care sector gained 19,200 jobs in September. While still a positive report, this is the fourth consecutive month of declining gains. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Health Care also showed another slight decline in September.

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The Health Care Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–showed a slight decrease this month, but remains flat since the strong uptick last quarter from -27 percent in April to -17 percent in May. The trend in Hiring Demand in Health Care had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in June 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom which appeared to occur in the first quarter of 2009.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 200,000 Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on September 11, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in September predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 17,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is the first forecast of average monthly job gains since March 2008, and follows last month's forecast of average monthly losses of 27,000 jobs over the next twelve months. Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for the unemployment rate has not improved for 2009. This month's survey showed an increase from in the unemployment rate from 9.9 percent to 10 percent for December 2009, and then subsequently a decrease from 9.4 percent to 9.3 percent for December 2010.

Even though the recession may have ended, on average the economists expect the jobless rate, at 9.7% in August, to peak at 10.2% before slowly declining next year. While the economists forecast that the economy will add jobs over the next 12 months, the net increase is seen at a modest 200,000 over that period and the unemployment rate still is expected to be at 9.3% in December 2010.When asked about the biggest risk to the economy right now, 10 of the economists highlighted the weak jobs market.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from September 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

'Surprising' Canadian Employment Gains Presaged by Rising Hiring Demand

By Charles Thibault on September 4, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Statistics Canada announced this morning that Canadian employment rose by 27,000 workers in August.

This came as a surprise to Canadian economists, according to the Globe and Mail, a leading Canadian newspaper. The expectation was a decline of 15,000 workers.

However, this gain in employment was in fact presaged by an increase in Canadian labor demand, as expressed by a rise in the number of new online job ads. Overall Canadian Hiring Demand is up 16% since last month. This week, 10,000 more new job ads were placed online than 4 weeks ago. Over the past month, there has been a cumulative increase of 22,000 more new online job ads.

Of particular interest is the fact that part-time employment is what drove this increase in overall employment. According to the Statistics Canada release "part-time employment rose by 31,000" in August. The number of postings on Craig's List – a great place to look for part-time work – is up 20% since last month with a weekly volume of 12,000 job ads.

Source: WANTED Analytics

Health Care Up 27,900 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Health Care.

According to today's preliminary report by the BLS, the health care sector gained 27,900 jobs in August. The sector remains one of the few bright spots in the labor market. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Health Care showed a slight decline in August.

Click chart to view full size

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Health Care Up 19,600 – July 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on August 7, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Health Care.

The health care industry continues to add jobs, according to today's preliminary BLS report, although still at a relatively modest rate compared to growth rates in recent years. According to the BLS' Employment Situation, the health care sector gained 19,600 jobs in July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Health Care showed a slight increase in July.

Click chart to view full size

The Health Care Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–increased slightly this month after remaining flat in June. Last quarter saw a strong uptick from -27 percent in April to -17 percent in May. The trend in Hiring Demand in Health Care had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in June 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom which appeared to occur in the first quarter of the year.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

S&P 500 Healthcare (XLV) – Inflection Point too Soon?

By Charles Thibault on July 6, 2009 in Health Care - XLV.

Since reporting an uptick in Hiring Demand by the Health Care sector of the S&P 500, year-over-year returns in the S&P 500 Health Care Index (NYSE:XLV) have improved in relative terms, even as Hiring Demand continues its overall downward trend.

On June 19th, 2009, the yearly return on the health care sector Index was -16.7%. This week (June 30), the Index is down only 13.6% compared to the same date last year, the best performance since October 11, 2008. Since March 5th, the S&P 500 Health Care Index is up 22%.

Source: WANTED Analytics

Hiring Demand has slipped after the spike experienced in mid-May. Year-over-year changes in Hiring Demand (based on the 4-week rolling summation of Unique New Ads) reached a peak of -19.7% on May 15, 2009. However, it slipped back down to -50.0% two weeks ago, and -45.4% last week. Despite improvement in the Index, overall Hiring Demand is still trending downward.

Health Care Up 20,800 – June 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on July 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Health Care.

Today's preliminary BLS report indicates that the health care industry continues to add jobs, although at a relatively modest rate compared to growth rates in recent years. According to the BLS' Employment Situation, the health care sector gained 20,800 jobs in June. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Health Care showed no increase in June.

Click chart to view full size

The Health Care Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–is flat this month, after a strong uptick from -27 percent in April to -17 percent in May. The trend in Hiring Demand in Health Care had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in June 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom which appeared to occur in the first quarter of the year.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

Upturn in Hiring Demand for S&P 500 Health Care Index Companies (Updated)

By Juli Morris and Charles Thibault on May 15, 2009 in Health Care - XLV.

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In the chart to the left, Hiring Demand(the blue line in the chart) for companies comprising the The S&P 500 Health Care Index has moved upward recently, according to the latest WANTED Hiring Demand data.

For the week ended May 2, year-over-year change in Hiring Demand based on online job ads improved from -39 percent the prior week to -29 percent (based on the count of Available Ads). For the same period, yearly returns for the Index were up two percentage points, year-over-year, from the prior week, ending at -26 percent.

Health Care Up 16,800–April 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on May 8, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Health Care.

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The health care industry continues to add jobs, according to today's BLS report, but at a rate that is modest compared to growth rates in recent years. According to the BLS' Employment Situation, the health care sector gained 16,800 jobs in April.

WANTED reported in March that the decline in new job ads might push the total employment change in the health care sector into negative territory. Although that has not occurred yet, overall demand for health care workers remains weak.

In March we saw a small decline in hospital jobs, which was the first employment decline for hospitals since June 2004.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

FORECAST: March 2009 — Health Care Up 28,600

By Juli Morris on March 25, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Health Care.

Actual jobs in the healthcare sector are holding steady, according to a forecast from WANTED Technologies, but demand for employees is down.

WANTED forecasts a gain of 28,600 jobs in the healthcare industry in March. However, as reported last month, WANTED has detected some troubling trends in healthcare job postings. And we remain concerned that these trends may soon be reflected in a decline in actual jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its "Employment Situation" report on Friday, April 3.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

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