Financial Industry – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Finance Down 8,800 – September 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on October 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 8,800 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for September, following a revised loss of 18,200 jobs reported by the BLS for August. Losses of 7,400 jobs in the Banking sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fifth consecutive month, from -27 percent in August to -25 percent in September.
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FORECAST: September 2009 – Finance Down 7,700

By Charles Thibault on September 28, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

WANTED Technologies forecasts that the BLS will announce an loss of 7,700 workers in the Finance and Insurance industry in September (NAICS supersector 52). Last month, the Finance and Insurance industry lost 20,000 workers.

The number of online job ads for Financial Specialists grew by 7.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last month, after declining 2% in August. This improvement in Hiring Demand dampens job losses but is not strong enough to produce gains in employment.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Preliminary August Estimate for the Finance and Insurance sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, October 2, at 8:30 AM.

WANTED Technologies also forecasts employment counts within selected industry sub-groups. We forecast losses of 1,600 workers in the Credit Intermediation sector (NAICS 522), a loss of only 300 workers in the Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments sector (NAICS 523), and a loss of 6,600 workers in Insurance Carriers (NAICS 524).

Finance Down 20,000 – August 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on September 4, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 20,000 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for August, following a revised loss of 15,100 jobs reported by the BLS for July. Losses of 12,800 loss in the Insurance sector were the largest component of the overall employment decline.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fourth consecutive month, from -32 percent in July to -27 percent in August. Outside of the Insurance sector, the level of job losses has generally been improving over the past several months.
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FORECAST: August 2009 — Finance Down 8,000

By Juli Morris on August 26, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

WANTED forecasts a loss of 8,000 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for August, the smallest loss for this sector since July 2008. This follows a smaller-than-expected loss of 12,900 jobs reported by the BLS for July. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Financial Services showed another solid uptick in August, coming off of a three-year low in April.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fourth consecutive month, from -32 percent in July to -27 percent in August. The trend in Hiring Demand in Financial Services had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in March 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom that appeared to occur in April at -48 percent.

Hiring Demand up 18% in July at Largest Financial Firms

By Juli Morris on August 21, 2009 in Business/Finance.

We reported last month that Hiring Demand at the ten major financial institutions repaying TARP funds declined 11 percent in June from its May level. The overall trend for Q2 2009, however, has been strong growth, with online job ads for these firms up 60 percent in July over their Q1 low in February. July's 18 percent month-over-month gain puts Hiring Demand at the nation's largest financial firms solidly above its three-year, pre-Recession high in September 2007.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Online job ads posted by J.P. Morgan Chase now constitute 67 percent of the total number of new ads in July (up 7 percent from June), with the largest concentration of job ads falling under the following categories: Tellers; Sales Agents, Financial Services; Financial Managers, Branch or Department; Personal Financial Advisers; Loan Officers; and Computer Specialists.

The top five hiring markets for these firms (by MSA) are New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Dallas-Fort Worth.

While positive earnings news and announcements of hiring plans continue to roll in, the sector still faces serious challenges:

The specter of a systemic collapse in the U.S. banking system has faded, largely because the government has shored up the industry with $250 billion in taxpayer-funded capital since last fall, most of it going to big banks. But more than 20% of all banks reported a net loss in the first quarter, the latest period for which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has figures, and problems are now building in small and medium institutions. Mortgage-delinquency rates and losses on credit cards are at all-time highs. The accumulating bad assets and need for capital mean few banks are lending aggressively, creating a drag on the economic recovery.

The ten financial firms granted permission by the Treasury in early June to begin repaying government-bailout funds received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program are: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp and BB&T Corp., American Express Co., Capital One Financial Corp., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., State Street Corp. and Northern Trust Corp.

Finance Down 12,900 – July 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on August 7, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 12,900 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for July, following a revised loss of 19,600 jobs reported by the BLS for June. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Financial Services showed another solid uptick in July, coming off of a three-year low in April.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the third consecutive month, from -37 percent in June to -32 percent in July. The trend in Hiring Demand in Financial Services had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in March 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom that appeared to occur in April at -48 percent.
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Forecast July 2009 – Finance down 14,400

By Charles Thibault on July 30, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

Based on slowing year-over-year drops in Hiring Demand in the financial sector, WANTED's forecasting models predict that employment will drop by only 14,400 workers in the Finance and Insurance Industry in July (BLS series CES5552000001). Hiring Demand is down 32% compared to last year. Last month this industry lost 18,200 jobs when Hiring Demand was down 36%.

WANTED also forecasts employment in three detailed financial industry segments, each of which is reviewed below. Financial sector job losses are concentrated in the "Credit Intermediation and Related Activities" segment, where we forecast a reduction of 10,800 workers. WANTED predicts that the BLS will report only very minimal losses in both the "Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments" and "Insurance Carriers and Related Activities" segments.

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Hiring Demand in the "Credit Intermediation and Related Activities" segment has improved in relative terms but not fast enough – Hiring Demand has only improved six percentage points since last month, down 25.6% from last year. We predict job losses of 10,800 workers in this segment (BLS series CES5552200001). Last month, this segment lost 10,200 jobs with Hiring Demand down 31.6%.

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Hiring Demand Down 11% in June at Largest Financial Firms

By Juli Morris on July 21, 2009 in Business/Finance.

We reported last month that Hiring Demand at the ten major financial institutions repaying TARP funds was on the rise this Spring, with online job ads for these firms up 46 percent in May compared to February 2009, their first quarter low. These financial firms were granted permission by the Treasury in early June to begin repaying government-bailout funds received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Source: WANTED Analytics 2.0

Hiring Demand at the same ten financial firms declined 11 percent in June from its May level, remaining 35 percent higher than the February low.

Despite recent positive news in the sector, such as robust earnings reports from JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, as well as from firms like Bank of America and Citigroup, the sector faces continuing difficulties in the second half of 2009. Losses by regional banks on commercial real estate loans are expected to top $30 billion in 2009, and 57 have already failed this year.

Online job ads posted by J.P. Morgan Chase constitute 60 percent of the total number of new ads in June, with the largest concentration of job ads falling under the following categories: Tellers; Sales Agents, Financial Services; Financial Managers, Branch or Department; Personal Financial Advisers; Loan Officers; and Computer Specialists.

The ten financial institutions granted permission to begin repaying TARP funds are: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp and BB&T Corp., American Express Co., Capital One Financial Corp., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., State Street Corp. and Northern Trust Corp.

Finance Down 18,200 – June 2009 BLS Preliminary Report

By Juli Morris on July 2, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a loss of 18,200 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for June, following a smaller-than-expected revised loss of 17,600 jobs reported by the BLS for May. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Financial Services showed a solid uptick in June, coming off of a three-year low in April.

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The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the second consecutive month, from -41 percent in May to a revised -37 percent in June. The trend in Hiring Demand in Financial Services had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in March 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom that appeared to occur in April at -48 percent.

As we previously reported, confidence seems to be building in this sector, with ten of the largest recipients of TARP funds starting to pay back those funds while experiencing their own rising Hiring Demand, and with Citigroup and other financial institutions planning to boost executive salaries as much as 50 percent to compensate for lost bonuses in 2008. Goldman Sachs is predicting its most profitable year ever, along with record bonuses.

FORECAST: June 2009 — Finance Down 16,000

By Juli Morris on June 24, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

WANTED forecasts a loss of 16,000 jobs in the Finance and Insurance sector for June, the smallest loss for this sector since October 2008. This follows a smaller-than-expected loss of 19,300 jobs reported by the BLS for May. WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Financial Services showed a solid uptick in June, coming off of a three-year low in April.

Click chart to view full size

The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the second consecutive month, from -41 percent in May to -36 percent in June. The trend in Hiring Demand in Financial Services had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in March 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom that appeared to occur in April at -48 percent.

Confidence seems to be building in this sector, with ten of the largest recipients of TARP funds starting to pay back those funds while experiencing their own rising Hiring Demand, and with Citigroup and other financial institutions planning to boost executive salaries as much as 50 percent to compensate for lost bonuses in 2008. Goldman Sachs is predicting its most profitable year ever, along with record bonuses.

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