Online job ads hit their highest levels in March 2012 at 9,394. Since then, hiring demand has dipped 16%. However ad volumes are still higher than 2 years ago by 31%. As you can see in the chart, overall online job ads for data analysts have increased since 2009 with slight dips annually around December month (likely a seasonal trend). With increasing amounts of online and customer data being collected by organizations, we expect the demand for data analysts to continue.

Online Job Ad Growth for Data Analyst Skills

The Hiring Scale™ indicates that it will be very difficult on average across the US to recruit data analysts, although the best place to source this talent would be Fresno, CA.

Our candidate supply estimates that there are approximately 205,000 data analysts currently in the US workforce and there are 1,642 employers currently recruiting for candidates with this experience. One of the top certifications required for data analysts is Crystal Reports. Other than data analysis, the most demanded skill is structured query language (SQL).

5 Employers with the Most Hiring Demand Now

1. SAIC, Science Applications International Corporation
2. Unitedhealth Group
3. Capital One
4. Booz Allen Hamilton
5. Time Warner

If you are recruiting for data analysts, the national average salary advertised for this position is $73,000 – $89,000

For Analytics Users, you can look up this information by logging in to My Analytics > Go to Summary Tab > Under Job Criteria Type “Data Analyst” into the Keyword Box > Hit Enter

Note: Adding quotations around your keywords groups the term together. To compare hiring demand or average salary information to your location, select your city in the Locations filter.

© Copyright 2012 WANTED Technologies Corporation

1. Healthcare and Social Assistance
2. Scientific and Technical Services
3. Retail Trade
4. Accommodation and Food Services

The only industries to post increased revenue were real estate and construction.

Considering that real estate and construction were the only sectors with gains, we looked at job postings in these areas to see if small business revenue growth matches employment growth across these sectors.

As of May 2012, job ads for construction occupations were up 21% and at its highest in 4 years. Dallas, TX was the metro area that showed the most demand.

In May, real estate saw its highest amount of job ads since the recession: 71% increase since January 2009. The increase in revenue for small businesses and the increase in job ads for all sized businesses in this sector indicate that this is an area to watch. This also may indicate that if construction and real estate positions are in demand, more people are buying homes, businesses are expanding, businesses are spending more and the economy is recovering.

Download the WANTED Analytics Whitepaper 10 Ways to Take Advantage of the Hiring Boom to learn how you can take advantage of the road to recovery to fill your next position.

© Copyright 2012 WANTED Technologies Corporation

However, healthcare positions are on the rise. The Affordable Care Act provides more people with healthcare, bringing an influx of patients to health facilities, which will need to employ more healthcare professionals to attend to patients.

In May 2012 there were 798,860 job ads filling healthcare positions. That’s up 14% from a year ago and 38% since May 2009. The most in-demand positions include:

1. Registered Nurses
2. Physical Therapists
3. Occupational Therapist
4. Occupational Therapist Assistant
5. Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
6. Speech-Language Pathologists
7. Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
8. Medical Assistants
9. Physical Therapist Assistants
10. Physician Assistants

New York City leads in terms of demand followed by Houston, TX.

Do you think hiring will continue to trend up over the next year?

Keep track of healthcare hiring demand with a free trial of WANTED Analytics. Learn where you can find your next candidates for the next position you need to fill.

© Copyright 2012 WANTED Technologies Corporation

There is also little expectation of significant improvement to the unemployment rate over the next 14 months, as rate predictions for December 2011 have now risen to 9.0 percent. December 2010 forecasts have risen from a low this year of 9.3 to reach 9.6 in September and October.

Nearly all of the economist surveyed expect the Fed to resume quantitative easing next month, most likely through purchases of Treasurys:

But even though nearly all the economists expect the Fed to act, most think it is either not a good idea or an ineffective response. Just 23 said more asset purchases are needed, while 23 said risks outweigh the benefits and seven said they won't be effective.

"The economy doesn't need it now unless a new recession begins," said James F. Smith of Parsec Financial Management.

Though economists don't expect robust growth, they see just a 20% chance of another recession in the next 12 months.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from October 8-13. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

© Copyright 2010 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

WANTED Technologies expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report Nonfarm Employment gains of 220,000 workers for April 2010. The BLS Employment Situation for April 2010 is scheduled to be released on May 7, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

The BLS reported employment gains of 162,000 nonfarm workers for March of 2010, after offsetting employment changes of -14,000 and +14,000 workers for January and February.

This month's forecast is based on the following:

• Hiring Demand – the number of online job postings – has grown since last month. Compared to the previous month, there were 10,000 more online job ads on major national job boards (Monster, CareerBuilder, HotJobs). This was a 1.8% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. In other words, hiring, as expressed through the number of online job ads, has been rising at a slow and steady pace, presaging continued employment gains.
• Although Craig's List is NOT included in our forecasting models, it experienced a "level-shift" in January of this year which has held up so far. In 2009 the number of job postings on Craig's List was around 170,000, weekly. More recently that number has hovered around 210,000 new job ads a week. Craig's List is the largest "job board" by volume in the United States and is a good indicator of demand for low salary or hourly jobs.
• Over the period covering March 13 to April 12th, the 4-week moving average count of new Unemployment Insurance Claims has fallen by about 4,000. Over a 4-week cumulative period that means that 16,000 fewer people have filed an unemployment insurance claim.
• Since February 8th the S&P 500 index has gained 15%, suggesting that others share in this positive expectation.
• Our forecast for this month also includes the hiring of an estimated 66,000 Census workers. Most of the US Census Bureau hiring will be effectuated in May of this year, where we can expect (temporary) employment gains of 350,000 nonfarm workers due to the decennial census alone.

© Copyright 2010 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Last month, the BLS said that US Nonfarm Employment dropped by 36,000 workers.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

This month's forecast is based on the following labor market dynamics:

• Particularly meaningful for this month's forecast are offsetting changes in new Unemployment Insurance Claims:
  • There were consecutive increases of 32,000 and 24,000 new UI Claims for the weeks ending February 13th and February 20th 2010. The week ending February 20th had a total 498,000 new UI claims. The BLS measures employment on the 12th day of each month, so technically the report ending February 13th can be excluded since it overlaps with February's employment count. However, it still provides a signal on what happened in the labor market and is a close straddle on the March employment reporting date.
  • More recent UI claim reports have been positive. New Claims fell by 30,000 for the week ending February 27th, settling at 468,000. In the past two weeks UI Claims have improved marginally as well, falling to 462,000 and 457,000 for the weeks of March 6th and March 13th. This is a good signal as it indicates continued positive momentum in the labor market. The 4-week moving average has returned to levels around 470,000 and will fall precipitously when the value of 498,000 drops out the 4-week window used this week's release.
  • The 4-week moving average now stands at 471,250. This is an increase of 3,500 claims relative to the 4-week moving average of 467,750 seen a month ago. Over a 4-week period, that means a cumulative total 14,000 more new Unemployment Insurance Claims.
• New online job ads on major national job boards grew by 9,500 ads in March. This is a slight softening after 4 consecutive months of improvements in the range of 12,000 to 14,000 online job ads. Changes in Employment depend two variables – separations and hires – and we've discussed in a previous post how it's possible to have both growing hiring and falling employment.

Both of these factors combined – a slight increase in new UI claims, and a slight softening of labor demand – lead us to forecast a drop in US Nonfarm Employment of 52,000 workers. This is a relative worsening of 16,000 workers compared to last month's drop of 36,000 workers. There was no surge in Hiring Demand that would lead us to forecast employment gains.

Employment changes will fluctuate around zero as the economy and labor market have reached a steady-state equilibrium.

Over the past three years, the average difference between the BLS's first preliminary data release and its third and final data release has been 78,000 workers a month. The BLS's first preliminary report is treated as a forecast of its third and final report. The WANTED historical standard of error of forecast is 84,000 workers per month, which is consistent with the BLS's average error to its own data.

The BLS will release its Employment Situation Summary for March on Friday, April 2, 2010, at 8:30 a.m

© Copyright 2010 WANTED Technologies Corporation

This would be the employment gain since the recession started 23 months ago. Last month, the BLS estimated that nonfarm employment shrunk by only 11,000 workers. The graph below shows year-over-year percent changes in Hiring Demand (new online job ads) and month-over-month changes in US employment (nonfarm). The blue dot represents this month's forecast from WANTED:

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Our forecast of an improvement of 75,000 in Nonfarm Employment is based on the following:

• Since the largest Nonfarm Employment drop in January (-741,000), employment losses have been receding at an average rate of 73,000 workers per month.

• Last month, the BLS announced a Nonfarm Employment drop of only 11,000. More importantly, however, both September's and October's employment drops were revised positively by 80,000 jobs. Instead of losing 219,000 jobs in September, the BLS estimates that the US lost only 139,000 jobs, an improvement of 80,000. For October, the improvement was 79,000 as Nonfarm Employment losses were 111,000 instead of 190,000. That news drove the S&P 500 index up 1.8% by 10am that very morning.

• There were 182,000 fewer new Unemployment Insurance claims this month compared to last (1,870,000 compared to 2,052,000).

• Hiring Demand (the number of new online job ads) has been consistently trending upwards over the past 9 months. On the three major national job boards (Monster, CareerBuilder, HotJobs), Hiring Demand has grown 2.6% a month on average since March and this trend was maintained in December (see graph above).

• Finally, we have shown how changes in the number of workers in the Employment Services industry (NAICS code 561300, which includes 'staffing' and 'temporary help services') lead US nonfarm employment counts both entering and exiting recessions. Over the past 20 years, employment in the 'Employment Services' industry has lead Nonfarm Employment by about 4 or 5 months. 4 months ago, the employment services industry registered its first employment gains.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Movements in the Employment Services industry lead the rest of the economy because of the nature of temporary workers. When the economy is in a downturn, it's easier to end a temp worker's contract that to lay someone off. In an economic upturn, it's less risky to hire someone first as a temp, with the possibility of permanent employment to follow.

The graph below shows employment changes over the past 11 months in the Employment Services industry, the Temporary Help Industry sub-category, and total US Nonfarm Employment. (Changes to Employment Services employment and Temporary Help Services employment are on the left axis, and the change in Nonfarm Employment is on the right axes).

By "lead", we do not mean that the Employment Services industry is so large that it can, on its own, generate employment gains. In November, only 2.6 million workers were employed in Employment Services industry, compared to 131 million total nonfarm workers. By "lead", we mean it in a statistical sense. Movements in the Employment Services industry presage movements in the rest of the economy – in this case, the Employment Services industry leads the rest of the US economy by 4 months. How many months in a row has the Employment Services industry grown now? 4.

Notice below how over the past few economic cycles, the Employment Services Industry (blue line) has always crossed the "zero line" before Nonfarm employment (olive line). The Employment Services industry crosses the zero line both entering and exiting business cycles. (The graph above is the month-over-month change in employment, and below are year-over-year changes. This is why the data  in the graph above above has crossed the zero line but it hasn't yet in the graph below – we're still below last year's employment levels, but above this summer's).

The following table shows the correlation coefficient between the year-over-year percent change in Employment Services industry employment and the year-over-year percent change in Nonfarm Employment, since January 1985. We show this correlation for different lagged values of the Employment Services industry growth rate (for example, "last month's Employment Services data with this month's Nonfarm data" is the 1st lag). Notice how the predictive power is the greatest at the 4th lag.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

That's great news for the economy at large, but bad news for professional forecasters. BLS revisions have a direct impact on "what our model would have said given this new information". Our forecast for November, given the revised data in this month's report, would have been a drop of 79,000 nonfarm workers instead of a drop of 155,000.

Most forecasting models will include lagged values of the dependent variable, in addition to any proprietary or public information forecasters have access to. WANTED's forecasting model, for example, includes Nonfarm Employment, Unemployment Insurance Claims, and our Hiring Demand Indicators (number of new online job ads posted on the internet).

The table below shows the information available at the time of our forecast, the information available in the most recent Employment Situation Summary, and our forecasts based on those two different sets of data:

This "relative difference" in our forecast is almost exactly the same as the BLS's own revisions (76 vs. 79/80).

Not only do revisions to the BLS's own data series creates issues with forecasting models, but it also puts forecasters on an "uneven playing field" relative to the BLS: we don't get to revise our predictions… (and if we did, we'd simply re-adjust them to the most recently published count).

The BLS will revise a monthly employment count twice before it becomes "final". This, in fact, allows us to treat the BLS's "1st preliminary" count as a forecast of its own "3rd and final" employment count. (Additionally, the BLS revisits the entire historical time-series once a year, usually in February).

So, we level the playing field by calculating "the BLS's own forecasting error relative to itself" and comparing that to the average error of professionally developed forecasts. We present this data permanently our forecast page for our readers. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is a standard measure of forecast error. We can also take the RMSE as a percent of the predicted variable in order to provide a "relative magnitude". From the table below, you can see that the BLS's "error relative to itself" is 23.9%, which compares favorably to WANTED's average error of 25.4%:

You can see that, for example, the Consensus Estimate performs quite well against the "1st preliminary" number, but it does not perform so well against the final employment counts. This shows how quickly forecasts can lose accuracy when the data source you're trying to predict keeps changing its mind…

(The RMSE% for the Consensus Estimate is higher than the RMSE% for the BLS even though the absolute error is smaller because the 3rd Final number is a more volatile series than the 1st Preliminary count).

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

This is a relative improvement of 35,000 job losses compared to October's drop of 190,000.

The BLS Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 4, 2009.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Three of the four major labor market variables suggest slowing of job losses, but none of them provide the hope of job gains this month:

• Over the 4-week period leading up to November 12th, there were 73,000 fewer new Unemployment Insurance Claims compared to the previous month. This variable yields a relative improvement of 43,000 job losses once it is entered into our econometric model. Last month the drop in new UI Claims was 88,000 which lead to a relative improvement of 29,000 in the Employment Situation Summary report.
• Job losses have subsided at an average rate of 70,000 workers per month since January. The relative improvement in last month's report was only 29,000 workers (below trend).
• Hiring Demand has been trending upwards since March, at an average rate of 2.1% per month. On the three major national job boards (Monster, CareerBuilder, Hotjobs), Hiring Demand has grown at an average rate of 1.4% per month since March as well. However, Hiring Demand did not grow significantly on a seasonally adjusted basis in October/November. Seasonal movements usually drive up Hiring Demand by 7% in October relative to its trend (which is how seasonal adjustment factors are calculated).  This year, Hiring Demand stayed exactly on trend. Of all four labor market variables examined, Hiring Demand is the only one that produces a negative relative improvement compare to last month's report (-12,000).

Source: WANTED Analytics

• There is still a gap between the number of people being hired and the number of people being separated from their jobs, according to the BLS' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. 300,000 more people were separated from their jobs in September than were hired. That gap, however, has been shrinking at an average rate of 60,000 workers per month since March. Transposing that trend to November puts the 'hiring gap' at 180,000.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Last month, the BLS reported nonfarm employment losses of 263,000.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Several factors contribute to another negative employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but with fewer job losses:

• There has been a 'positive trend' in job loss figures over the past 8 months. Nonfarm job losses have diminished an average 72,000 a month over the past 8 months.

• There were 88,000 fewer new UI Claims over the past month.

• More people are being separated from their jobs than are being hired into a new one, according to the BLS's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. However, the gap between the number of Hires and Separations has been shrinking by 62,000 workers a month over the past 8 months, and was -198,000 in August 2009.

• Hiring Demand has grown an average 0.7% a week over the past 8 months. However, the number of online job ads slipped by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis over the mid-month to mid-month period on major national job boards. The number of online job ads did not pick up as much in the second half of September as we would have been expected. Had there been a spike in the number of online job ads, WANTED would have forecast fewer job losses.

The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 6, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Financial Services Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising– rose for the fifth consecutive month, from -27 percent in August to -25 percent in September.

Within the NAICS code subcategories in the Financial sector, Hiring Demand data for NAICS 522, Credit Intermediation and Related Services—the banking industry—showed a 9 percent rise in online job ads, regaining the upward trending we've seen since April. BLS reported a loss of 7,400 jobs in September, and revised its August loss downward from 4,900 to 9,700. July's gain of 400 jobs was also revised into negative territory, with a loss of 1,900 jobs.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

In NAICS 523, Securities, Commodity Contracts and Other Financial investments — the brokerage community–September employment registered no change, while the August loss of 2,300 jobs was revised upward to a loss of 1,800. While Hiring Demand data showed a 24 percent year-over-year decline in the number of online jobs in September, this drop was generated by a spike in job ads in September 2008.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Today's news was a great improvement for the Insurance sector. In NAICS 524, Insurance Carriers and Related, September employment fell just 1,000 jobs, and August's loss was revised significantly upwards, from 12,800 to 6,900. July's loss also saw a significant positive revision, from 9,400 to 5,400. Hiring Demand data showed a solid uptick in September, from -21 percent to -16 percent.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

The BLS' preliminary report indicates a loss of 15,400 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry in September, after losing a surprisingly low 300 jobs in August (revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 1,000). WANTED Technologies' Hiring Demand Indicator (the yellow line in the chart below) for Transportation showed a strong uptick in September, continuing the overall upward trend from its three-year low in March 2009.

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Transportation Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–has risen from a three-year low of -61 percent in March to -11 percent in September.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

The Health Care Hiring Demand Indicator–a measure of year-over-year change in online job advertising–showed a slight decrease this month, but remains flat since the strong uptick  last quarter from -27 percent in April to -17 percent in May.  The trend in Hiring Demand in Health Care had been moving steadily downward from a peak it reached in June 2007 prior to the onset of the recession in December 2007, reaching a bottom which appeared to occur in the first quarter of 2009.

For more charts, graphs and forecasts, visit our BLS Forecast page.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation

Full-size chart available on Jobs. Trends. Insight.

Along with the preliminary report for September, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for July at a loss of 304,000 jobs, down 28,000 from its revised estimate of -276,000. It raised its August preliminary estimate up 15,000 jobs for a revised loss of 201,000 jobs. One more revision for August may still occur.

Looking at industry employment figures, health care employment grew by 19,200 in September.  Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by 15,400 in September, and the finance and insurance sector lost 8,800 jobs.

As expected, the unemployment rate rose from 9.7 to 9.8 percent, the highest level since June 1983.

© Copyright 2009 WANTED Technologies Corporation