Economic Recovery – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

BLS report shows loss of 54,000 jobs in August

By Juli Morris on September 3, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Amid growing investor pessimism in the economic recovery, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that employment fell by 54,000 jobs in August, a somewhat smaller loss than consensus estimates had predicted. On a positive note, job losses for June and July were both revised upwards. The economy is still short 7.8 million jobs from the employment levels seen at start of the recession in December 2007.

The August numbers reflect the loss of an additional 114,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. Private-sector payrolls added 67,000 jobs, slightly fewer than last month. Jobs were added in health care, mining, construction and temporary help services. Manufacturing jobs declined, and jobs in retail trade remained unchanged.

Along with the preliminary report for July, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for June at 175,000 jobs, up 46,000 from its revised estimate of -221,000. July's preliminary estimate was revised upwards by 77,000 jobs, from a loss of 131,000. One more revision for July may still occur.

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 9.6 percent, consistent with forecasts.

Preliminary report from BLS shows loss of 131,000 jobs in July

By Juli Morris on August 6, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Labor Market Dynamics.

With US markets watching closely, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that employment fell by 131,000 jobs in July, a greater loss than consensus estimates had predicted. The July numbers reflect the loss of an additional 143,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. Private-sector payrolls added 71,000 jobs, slightly fewer than last month. The economy is still short 7.8 million jobs from the employment levels seen at start of the recession in December 2007.

Jobs were added in health care, mining, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. Jobs in professional and business services, temporary help services and construction all dipped slightly. Jobs in financial activities continued to trend downward.

Along with the preliminary report for July, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job gains for May at 432,000 jobs, down 1,000 from its revised estimate of 433,000. June's preliminary estimate was revised significantly downwards, for a loss of 221,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5 percent; economists had predicted a slight rise.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 1.9 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on July 16, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 160,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. Optimism seems to be waning a bit: the same economists predicted average monthly gains of 180,000 in June, and 196,000 in May. A year ago, the July 2009 survey forecast losses of 70,000 per month.

There is also little optimism for significant improvement to the unemployment rate, as predictions were largely unchanged from prior months. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December. The timeline for regaining "full employment" (5.5%) was predicted to be at least 2015 by about half of the economists surveyed.

Reflecting the current political debate, economists were split about the ongoing Senate battle over long-term unemployment benefits:

59% of those who responded to the question … said if they were in Congress they would vote to renew the extension of unemployment compensation for up to 99 weeks, a proposal that is stalled in the Senate amid partisan maneuvering and worries about the federal deficit.

"An abrupt end to unemployment benefits could do more to damage the deficit than repair it by weakening the recovery and forcing the long-term unemployed to apply for more costly long-term benefits, such as Social Security," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

But 19 economists oppose an extension. It "increases incentive to be unemployed," said Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital LLC.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from July 9-12. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

Preliminary report from BLS shows loss of 125,000 jobs in June

By Juli Morris on July 2, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Amid fears of a stalled economic recovery, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that employment fell by 125,000 jobs in June, consistent with consensus estimates. The June numbers reflect a loss of 225,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. Private-sector payrolls added 83,000 jobs. The economy is still short 7.9 million jobs from the employment levels seen at start of the recession in December 2007.

Jobs gains were more broad-based in June, with jobs added in leisure and hospitality, temporary help services, management and technical consulting, business support services, health care, mining, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. Construction employment continued its decline.

Along with the preliminary report for June, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job gains for April at 313,000 jobs, up 23,000 from its revised estimate of 290,000. May's preliminary estimate was revised slightly upwards, for a gain of 433,000 jobs. One more revision for May may still occur.

The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent; economists had predicted a slight rise.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.2 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on June 10, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 180,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a slight decline over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 196,000 jobs. A year ago, the June 2009 survey forecast losses of 86, 000 per month.

Economists expect improvement in the unemployment rate to come slowly, despite the predicted gains. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, up from April's 9.6 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. The December 2010 forecast has ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow as well, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December.

Amid fears over the European debt crisis, job growth is still seen as a key factor in the economic recovery:

… 11 [economists surveyed] said the biggest downside risk was disappointing job growth in the U.S. In the U.S., the pace of job growth is key to the speed of the recovery. Twenty-two economists, a plurality of respondents, said the one development that could lead growth to exceed their forecasts in the second half is a pickup in hiring.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from June 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.4 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on May 14, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in May predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 196,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a solid improvement over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 158,000 jobs. A year ago, the May 2009 survey forecast losses of 176, 000 per month.

Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for improvement in the unemployment rate remains guarded. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, down from April's 9.9 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.3 percent for December 2010. The December 2010 forecast has remained static over the past three months, and ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from May 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 200,000 Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on September 11, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in September predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 17,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is the first forecast of average monthly job gains since March 2008, and follows last month's forecast of average monthly losses of 27,000 jobs over the next twelve months. Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for the unemployment rate has not improved for 2009. This month's survey showed an increase from in the unemployment rate from 9.9 percent to 10 percent for December 2009, and then subsequently a decrease from 9.4 percent to 9.3 percent for December 2010.

Even though the recession may have ended, on average the economists expect the jobless rate, at 9.7% in August, to peak at 10.2% before slowly declining next year. While the economists forecast that the economy will add jobs over the next 12 months, the net increase is seen at a modest 200,000 over that period and the unemployment rate still is expected to be at 9.3% in December 2010.When asked about the biggest risk to the economy right now, 10 of the economists highlighted the weak jobs market.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from September 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

WSJ Job Loss Forecast Improves – Unemployment Rate Forecast Remains Bleak

By Juli Morris on August 19, 2009 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in August predict that the U.S. economy will lose an average of 27,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months, significantly better than the 70,000 average monthly losses they forecast for July. This is the fifth consecutive survey predicting declining monthly losses. Despite the declining losses, the outlook for the unemployment rate has improved only slightly, from 10 percent to 9.9 percent for December 2009, and from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent for December 2010.

A better-than-expected employment report for July, where employers cut 247,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell for the first time in 15 months, suggests the worst is over. The unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 9.9% by December, but economists forecast that the economy will shed far fewer jobs over the next 12 months than they had forecast last month.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from August 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

UI Claims Data Allows for Cautious Optimism

By Charles Thibault on August 14, 2009 in Unemployment Insurance Claims.

Combined with slowing job losses and increases in Hiring Demand (which are a leading indicator), this week's Unemployment Insurance Claims report cements the idea that an economic recovery is on the horizon. After 9 weeks of almost uninterrupted improvements this week's data allows for cautious optimism.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 4-week moving average of new jobless claims rose by 8,500 claims. However, this slight increase does not put at risk the recent trends in labor market data.

Professor Hamilton has much discussed how the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has identified the 8th week after the peak in UI claims as the start of recovery. The 4-week moving average of new UI claims peaked on April 4th, when there were 658,750 claims. That was 18 weeks ago. UI claims dropped consistently for several weeks but picked up again May, which was matched in our Hiring Demand Indicators. On May 30th, there was a "local maximum" for UI claims, at 632,250 claims. That was 9 weeks ago. Professor Hamilton figures that there's 85% chance that April 4th will be identified as the peak.

On a seasonally unadjusted basis, there were 13,000 more claimants this week as the number of new job ads fell by 56,000. The week before, new claims had fallen by 45,000 claims as job ads rose by 14,000. The following time series plot new UI Claims and the number of new job ads, on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The UI claims axes has been inverted to facilitate analysis.

Click chart to view full size

Hiring Demand up 2.4% in July and Trending Upwards

By Charles Thibault on August 13, 2009 in Hiring Demand Indicators.

Hiring Demand improved 2.4% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. There were 132,000 more new job ads in July, which now total 1,433,000.

With the exception of a three week period in June, Hiring Demand has been growing an average of 0.8% a week since March, or 3.6% a month for the past 4 months. This corresponds to the rally in the stock markets.

Improvements are spread across most sectors of the US economy. Seven of the top eight Metropolitan Areas improved, as did 19 of 23 broad Occupational groups covered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Four weeks ago, Hiring Demand was down 29.5% on a year-over-year basis. Hiring Demand is now down only 27.1% compared to last year. This relative improvement of 2.4% controls for seasonal fluctuations.

Source: WANTED Analytics

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