Last month, staffing firms posted nearly 450,000 new online job ads. The Top 25 staffing firms by ad volume for May 2010 are listed below, along with the percentage change from April:
Health care jobs continue to lead the pack. There were over 138,000 job postings by staffing firms for the Health Care sector, followed by nearly 93,000 in Computer and Mathematical Occupations. Office and Administrative Support jobs were a distant third at just under 37,000.
The Employment Services industry has been growing over the past 4 months, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is important because over the past 20 years, the Employment Services industry has lead the rest of the economy both entering and exiting new business cycles – by about 4 months. Recent gains in the Employment Services industry means that US Nonfarm Employment could grow in December.
Movements in the Employment Services industry lead the rest of the economy because of the nature of temporary workers. When the economy is in a downturn, it's easier to end a temp worker's contract that to lay someone off. In an economic upturn, it's less risky to hire someone first as a temp, with the possibility of permanent employment to follow.
The graph below shows employment changes over the past 11 months in the Employment Services industry, the Temporary Help Industry sub-category, and total US Nonfarm Employment. (Changes to Employment Services employment and Temporary Help Services employment are on the left axis, and the change in Nonfarm Employment is on the right axes).
As the U.S. and other economies continue to battle the recession, hopeful market sources seek forecasters on both sides of the downturn. As such, many focus on the Employment Services Industry (ESI) as an indicator.
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A key reason: the ESI includes temporary staffing services. If the economy slows, firms are likely to hire temporary positions initially before making commitments to bringing on permanent employees.
WANTED HDI data demonstrates ESI hiring activity typically decreases before overall non-farm employment slows in the path of a recession. However, the ESI fails somewhat as a recession exit indicator. The over-the-year changes in the ESI at the back end of a recession seem to reflect total non-farm employment trends more than they move ahead of the general curve.
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