Labor Market Dynamics – Jobs. Trends. Insight.

BLS report shows loss of 54,000 jobs in August

By Juli Morris on September 3, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Amid growing investor pessimism in the economic recovery, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that employment fell by 54,000 jobs in August, a somewhat smaller loss than consensus estimates had predicted. On a positive note, job losses for June and July were both revised upwards. The economy is still short 7.8 million jobs from the employment levels seen at start of the recession in December 2007.

The August numbers reflect the loss of an additional 114,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. Private-sector payrolls added 67,000 jobs, slightly fewer than last month. Jobs were added in health care, mining, construction and temporary help services. Manufacturing jobs declined, and jobs in retail trade remained unchanged.

Along with the preliminary report for July, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job losses for June at 175,000 jobs, up 46,000 from its revised estimate of -221,000. July's preliminary estimate was revised upwards by 77,000 jobs, from a loss of 131,000. One more revision for July may still occur.

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 9.6 percent, consistent with forecasts.

Preliminary report from BLS shows loss of 131,000 jobs in July

By Juli Morris on August 6, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Labor Market Dynamics.

With US markets watching closely, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that employment fell by 131,000 jobs in July, a greater loss than consensus estimates had predicted. The July numbers reflect the loss of an additional 143,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. Private-sector payrolls added 71,000 jobs, slightly fewer than last month. The economy is still short 7.8 million jobs from the employment levels seen at start of the recession in December 2007.

Jobs were added in health care, mining, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. Jobs in professional and business services, temporary help services and construction all dipped slightly. Jobs in financial activities continued to trend downward.

Along with the preliminary report for July, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job gains for May at 432,000 jobs, down 1,000 from its revised estimate of 433,000. June's preliminary estimate was revised significantly downwards, for a loss of 221,000 jobs. One more revision for June may still occur.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5 percent; economists had predicted a slight rise.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 1.9 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on July 16, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 160,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. Optimism seems to be waning a bit: the same economists predicted average monthly gains of 180,000 in June, and 196,000 in May. A year ago, the July 2009 survey forecast losses of 70,000 per month.

There is also little optimism for significant improvement to the unemployment rate, as predictions were largely unchanged from prior months. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December. The timeline for regaining "full employment" (5.5%) was predicted to be at least 2015 by about half of the economists surveyed.

Reflecting the current political debate, economists were split about the ongoing Senate battle over long-term unemployment benefits:

59% of those who responded to the question … said if they were in Congress they would vote to renew the extension of unemployment compensation for up to 99 weeks, a proposal that is stalled in the Senate amid partisan maneuvering and worries about the federal deficit.

"An abrupt end to unemployment benefits could do more to damage the deficit than repair it by weakening the recovery and forcing the long-term unemployed to apply for more costly long-term benefits, such as Social Security," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

But 19 economists oppose an extension. It "increases incentive to be unemployed," said Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital LLC.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from July 9-12. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

Preliminary report from BLS shows loss of 125,000 jobs in June

By Juli Morris on July 2, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Amid fears of a stalled economic recovery, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that employment fell by 125,000 jobs in June, consistent with consensus estimates. The June numbers reflect a loss of 225,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. Private-sector payrolls added 83,000 jobs. The economy is still short 7.9 million jobs from the employment levels seen at start of the recession in December 2007.

Jobs gains were more broad-based in June, with jobs added in leisure and hospitality, temporary help services, management and technical consulting, business support services, health care, mining, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. Construction employment continued its decline.

Along with the preliminary report for June, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job gains for April at 313,000 jobs, up 23,000 from its revised estimate of 290,000. May's preliminary estimate was revised slightly upwards, for a gain of 433,000 jobs. One more revision for May may still occur.

The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent; economists had predicted a slight rise.

Business & Finance Job Postings up 22% from Last Year, Continued Growth in Corporate Hiring

By Charles Thibault and Harold Biswas on June 24, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

190,000 Business Operations & Financial Specialist job ads have been posted online over the past three months. This is an extra 35,000 job postings compared to the the same time last year, a 22% growth according to data from WANTED Analytics™, which tracks online job postings on over a thousand job boards. Job ads are unduplicated across sites, and only paid-for job postings are included in this analysis.

Hiring Demand growth in Business & Finance occurred in all major metro areas and job types. The largest growth occurred in the New York City and Stamford, Connecticut areas.

A particularly relevant and important result is that hiring for Personnel Recruiters has more than doubled compared to last year. There were over 10,000 new job ads posted for recruiters in March, April, and May 2010, compared to only 4,600 for the same period last year. This is a very positive sign: corporations are hiring the workers responsible for future hiring.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.2 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on June 10, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of nearly 180,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a slight decline over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 196,000 jobs. A year ago, the June 2009 survey forecast losses of 86, 000 per month.

Economists expect improvement in the unemployment rate to come slowly, despite the predicted gains. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, up from April's 9.6 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.4 percent by the end of 2010. The December 2010 forecast has ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year. Growth in 2011 is expected to remain slow as well, with a rate of 9.0 percent in June 2011 and 8.6 percent in December.

Amid fears over the European debt crisis, job growth is still seen as a key factor in the economic recovery:

… 11 [economists surveyed] said the biggest downside risk was disappointing job growth in the U.S. In the U.S., the pace of job growth is key to the speed of the recovery. Twenty-two economists, a plurality of respondents, said the one development that could lead growth to exceed their forecasts in the second half is a pickup in hiring.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from June 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

Preliminary report from BLS shows gain of 431,000 jobs in May

By Juli Morris on June 4, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Employment rose by 431,000 jobs in May, according to today's preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The May numbers include 411,000 temporary government jobs for the 2010 Census. These jobs will be lost in the second half of the year. Consensus estimates had predicted a gain of 540,000 jobs. The economy has shed 8.5 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Jobs were added in manufacturing, temporary help services, and mining, while construction employment declined.

Along with the preliminary report for May, the BLS issued its Final Estimate of job gains for March at 208,000 jobs, down 22,000 from its revised estimate of 230,000. April's preliminary estimate remained unchanged at a gain of 290,000 jobs. One more revision for April may still occur.

The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent; economists had predicted a smaller drop.

WANTED to provide monthly US Nonfarm Employment Forecast as an offline service

By Charles Thibault on June 3, 2010 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, S&P 500 - SPY, Unemployment Insurance Claims.

After more than a year of forecasting changes in US Nonfarm Employment using online job ad data, WANTED will no longer publish a free and publicly available forecast of monthly employment changes.

The monthly BLS Nonfarm Employment Forecast will now be made available as an offline service to new or existing WANTED Analytics™ subscribers. The monthly forecast will not be part of the standard subscription to the WANTED Analytics platform of applications – the Nonfarm Forecast is offered as a stand-alone product subject to its own service level agreement. Anyone interested in this service is invited to contact us.

WANTED will still provide guidance on US labor market dynamics on this blog through a monthly 'National Hiring Demand Outlook' article.

This decision is driven by three considerations:

National Labor Demand Grows – 37,000 More Online Job Ads in April

By Charles Thibault on May 26, 2010 in Hiring Demand Indicators, Labor Market Dynamics, S&P 500 - SPY, Unemployment Insurance Claims.

Labor Demand in the United States continued to grow in April.

In the last 4 weeks, 1.35 million new job ads were posted on paid-for online job boards. This includes 158,000 postings on CareerBuilder, 157,000 on Monster, 64,000 on HotJobs, and 71,000 job ads on Dice, an IT specialized job board.

There were 37,000 more online job ads posted in April compared to March. Considering the data collected so far for May, those monthly gains have remained stable at 33,000 new online job ads.

This growth comes after a solid first part of 2010 in terms of labor demand. The US was finally able to start generating gains in employment, even if we remove temporary hiring at the Census Bureau.

Compared to January, even the number of new Unemployment Insurance Claims fell from 490,000/week to around 450,000.

Source: WANTED Analytics

However, recent growth in Hiring Demand has decelerated a bit, although it remains positive in absolute terms. April did see an increase of 37,000 online job ads – but we had seen gains of 100,000 for March, 130,000 for February, and 143,000 for January. Even the number of new UI claims showed weakness last week, rising by 25,000 new claimants.

WSJ Economists Predict Gain of 2.4 Million Jobs over Next Twelve Months

By Juli Morris on May 14, 2010 in Labor Market Dynamics.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in May predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 196,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is a solid improvement over last month's forecast of average monthly gains of 158,000 jobs. A year ago, the May 2009 survey forecast losses of 176, 000 per month.

Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for improvement in the unemployment rate remains guarded. This month's survey forecasts a rate of 9.7 in June, down from April's 9.9 percent level, and a subsequent drop to 9.3 percent for December 2010. The December 2010 forecast has remained static over the past three months, and ranged between 9.3 to 9.6 percent over the past year.

This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from May 7-11. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.

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