National Hiring Demand has been growing at a rate of 2.1% a month since March of this year according to data from WANTED Analytics, which tracks the number of online job ads on over 1,000 job boards. 'Hiring Demand' is the most timely and analytically flexible measure of what's traditionally labeled Labor Demand. Hiring Demand leads published labor market data such as Unemployment Insurance Claims (2 weeks) and Nonfarm Employment (4 months).
Before the recession, National Hiring Demand grew at an average rate of 0.7% per month. Recent growth is three times faster than that. This allows us to change our outlook from "stable" to "positive".
Several industry segments are performing strongly. These include Retail Sales; Food; Transportation; Production; Education; and Healthcare.
Most occupations that were hit by the 2007 real estate/sub-prime mortgage crisis are still under-performing the rest of the economy, however. These include Architecture/Engineering; and Construction.
Hiring Demand for upper-level Management has not caught up either, although demand for their underlings has. Indeed, Hiring Demand for most "office jobs" has been gaining ground since March, including Business/Finance; Office/Admin Support; and Computer/Math. Once enough of these workers are hired and the economic outlook remains positive for long enough, Hiring Demand for Management Occupations will catch up.
The labor market situation over the past 4 years can be divvied up into three parts:
- Pre-recession: October 2005 to December 2008.
- Recessionary: January 2008 to February 2009 (some can argue that the recession had two periods, which can be supported by the fact that most measures of economic health trended downwards slightly but "fell of a cliff" during the financial crisis of September 2008).
- Recovery: March 2009 until today.
The choice of March as the beginning of the recovery period is based on the stock market bull rally which started on March 9th, 2009.
The following table summarizes trends in Hiring Demand (average monthly growth rates), over these three periods, for all 23 major Standard Occupation Codes as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, sorting descending on the most recent growth rates.
| SOC CODE | SOC DESCRIPTION | OCT 2005 to DEC 2007 26 months | JAN 2008 to FEB 2009 14 months | MARCH 2009 to NOV 2009 9 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000000 | All Occupations | 0.7% | -3.5% | 2.1% |
| 270000 | Arts / Design / Entertainment / Media | 1.1% | -4.1% | 7.7% |
| 350000 | Food Preparation and Serving | 0.8% | -6.4% | 7.5% |
| 530000 | Transportation / Material Moving | -0.5% | -5.3% | 5.8% |
| 410000 | Sales | 0.3% | -3.2% | 5.5% |
| 550000 | Military Specific | 1.9% | 0.0% | 4.1% |
| 130000 | Business / Financial | -0.5% | -4.0% | 3.6% |
| 190000 | Life / Physical / Social Science | 0.9% | -3.1% | 3.1% |
| 490000 | Installation / Maintenance / Repair | 0.1% | -6.0% | 2.9% |
| 210000 | Community / Social Services | 0.4% | -4.1% | 2.8% |
| 510000 | Production | 0.3% | -6.3% | 2.8% |
| 150000 | Computer / Mathematical | 1.2% | -2.2% | 2.7% |
| 430000 | Office / Administrative Support | -0.2% | -4.6% | 2.6% |
| 250000 | Education / Training / Library | 1.7% | -3.7% | 2.5% |
| 310000 | Healthcare Support | 2.1% | -1.4% | 2.1% |
| 230000 | Legal | 0.5% | -5.9% | 1.5% |
| 290000 | Healthcare Practitioners and Technical | 2.4% | -2.1% | 0.4% |
| 110000 | Management | 0.6% | -4.1% | 0.1% |
| 170000 | Architecture / Engineering | 0.8% | -3.7% | -0.2% |
| 330000 | Protective Service | 2.1% | -4.1% | -0.5% |
| 370000 | Building Maintenance / Grounds Cleaning | 0.6% | -7.9% | -1.3% |
| 390000 | Personal Care / Service | 0.1% | -5.5% | -2.0% |
| 450000 | Farming / Fishing / Forestry | 0.5% | -4.4% | -2.1% |
| 470000 | Construction / Extraction | -1.4% | -7.9% | -2.8% |
It's important to note that rises in National Hiring Demand and continued drops in Nonfarm Employment are not mutually exclusive. As we've mentioned before, two factors affect changes in employment: Job Hires and Job Exits. Job Hires can continue to grow, but if there are fewer Hires than Exits, we have not yet passed the "replacement level threshold".
The following graph shows the trend in National Hiring Demand. The data is not seasonally adjusted, which you can see with the yearly drops in December. However, this does not affect estimation of time trends.
Source: WANTED Analytics
Some sectors are doing well, like the Food/Restaurants industry, Transportation, and Production.
Source: WANTED Analytics
Most "office" jobs have also picked up, even though the overall level of Hiring Demand for them is still below what it was before the onset of the current recession:
Source: WANTED Analytics
s000000,All Occupations,0.7%,-3.5%,2.1%
s110000,Management,0.6%,-4.1%,0.1%
s130000,Business / Financial,-0.5%,-4.0%,3.6%
s150000,Computer / Mathematical,1.2%,-2.2%,2.7%
s170000,Architecture / Engineering,0.8%,-3.7%,-0.2%
s190000,Life / Physical / Social Science,0.9%,-3.1%,3.1%
s210000,Community / Social Services,0.4%,-4.1%,2.8%
s230000,Legal,0.5%,-5.9%,1.5%
s250000,Education / Training / Library,1.7%,-3.7%,2.5%
s270000,Arts / Design / Entertainment / Media,1.1%,-4.1%,7.7%
s290000,Healthcare Practitioners and Technical,2.4%,-2.1%,0.4%
s310000,Healthcare Support,2.1%,-1.4%,2.1%
s330000,Protective Service,2.1%,-4.1%,-0.5%
s350000,Food Preparation and Serving,0.8%,-6.4%,7.5%
s370000,Building Maintenance / Grounds Cleaning,0.6%,-7.9%,-1.3%
s390000,Personal Care / Service,0.1%,-5.5%,-2.0%
s410000,Sales,0.3%,-3.2%,5.5%
s430000,Office / Administrative Support,-0.2%,-4.6%,2.6%
s450000,Farming / Fishing / Forestry,0.5%,-4.4%,-2.1%
s470000,Construction / Extraction,-1.4%,-7.9%,-2.8%
s490000,Installation / Maintenance / Repair,0.1%,-6.0%,2.9%
s510000,Production,0.3%,-6.3%,2.8%
s530000,Transportation / Material Moving,-0.5%,-5.3%,5.8%
s550000,Military Specific,1.9%,0.0%,4.1%
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