FORECAST: September 2009 – Finance Down 7,700

By Charles Thibault on September 28, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment, Business/Finance.

WANTED Technologies forecasts that the BLS will announce an loss of 7,700 workers in the Finance and Insurance industry in September (NAICS supersector 52). Last month, the Finance and Insurance industry lost 20,000 workers.

The number of online job ads for Financial Specialists grew by 7.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last month, after declining 2% in August. This improvement in Hiring Demand dampens job losses but is not strong enough to produce gains in employment.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Preliminary August Estimate for the Finance and Insurance sector as part of its Employment Situation report on Friday, October 2, at 8:30 AM.

WANTED Technologies also forecasts employment counts within selected industry sub-groups. We forecast losses of 1,600 workers in the Credit Intermediation sector (NAICS 522), a loss of only 300 workers in the Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments sector (NAICS 523), and a loss of 6,600 workers in Insurance Carriers (NAICS 524).

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We forecast a relative improvement in the Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments sector despite worsening year-over-yer declines in Hiring Demand. This month's 24% year-over-year decline in the number of online jobs was generated by a spike in job ads in September 2008.

In fact, the brightest spot in the financial sector is the turnaround in investment activities. The stock market has rallied 56% since March 9th. The number of online job ads for "Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents" totaled 4,800 last week, whereas there were only 1,400 when the market rally started in early March 2009.

Securities, Commodity Contracts… (523):