FORECAST: September 2009 – Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 167,000 (Update 2)

By Juli Morris on September 21, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

WANTED Technologies forecasts that Nonfarm Employment Payroll will drop by 167,000 in September. Last month the BLS reported a decline of 216,000 nonfarm workers.

Click chart to view full size

Several factors contribute to this negative outlook, although we do expect a "relative improvement" in job losses of almost 50,000 compared to last month's report.

- There were 32,000 fewer new Unemployment Insurance Claims in the 4 weeks preceding September 12th than in the 4 weeks preceding August 12th. (Nonfarm Employment is counted on the 12th day of each month).

- Hiring Demand has remained almost unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to last month. There hasn't been a surge in new online job ads that would lead us to believe a strong hiring trend is underway that could reverse employment losses.

- Job losses, according to the August Employment Situation, have "moderated, [...] although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors". In other words, job losses continue, but there has been a slow down in these losses.

Update: The consensus estimate from Thomson/Reuters predicts a decline of 170,000 jobs for September; TrimTabs Investment Research forecasts a loss of 358,000 jobs.

The BLS will release its September Employment Situation on Friday, October 2nd. Further details on forecasts from WANTED and other providers are available on our BLS Forecast page.