Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in September predict that the U.S. economy will gain an average of 17,000 jobs per month over the next twelve months. This is the first forecast of average monthly job gains since March 2008, and follows last month's forecast of average monthly losses of 27,000 jobs over the next twelve months. Despite the forecasted gains, the outlook for the unemployment rate has not improved for 2009. This month's survey showed an increase from in the unemployment rate from 9.9 percent to 10 percent for December 2009, and then subsequently a decrease from 9.4 percent to 9.3 percent for December 2010.
Even though the recession may have ended, on average the economists expect the jobless rate, at 9.7% in August, to peak at 10.2% before slowly declining next year. While the economists forecast that the economy will add jobs over the next 12 months, the net increase is seen at a modest 200,000 over that period and the unemployment rate still is expected to be at 9.3% in December 2010.When asked about the biggest risk to the economy right now, 10 of the economists highlighted the weak jobs market.
This month's Wall Street Journal survey of economists was conducted from September 4-8. Each month the WSJ asks economists to estimate the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the next twelve months. That is, the monthly changes the BLS reports each month, for the next twelve months, divided by twelve.
All Entries