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FORECAST: August 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 190,000 (Update 2)

By Juli Morris on August 24, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

WANTED Technologies forecasts that Nonfarm Employment Payroll will drop by 190,000 in August. Last month the BLS reported a decline of 247,000 nonfarm workers.

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Hiring Demand is steadily improving but not enough to generate gains in employment – there is no reason to expect any level of hiring which would reverse the current trend in employment. Initial jobless claims have risen by 20,000 over the past two weeks. Although job losses are slowing, year-over-year decreases in Hiring Demand and increases in jobless claims point to another negative report from the BLS.

The BLS will release the 'August Employment Situation' on Friday, September 4th.

On an industry-level, WANTED forecasts a loss of 12,200 jobs in Transportation, a loss of 8,000 jobs in Finance and Insurance, but an increase of 31,900 jobs in Health Care. Each of these industry forecasts is featured in our Industry Forecasts Channel.

Update: The consensus estimate from Thomson/Reuters predicts a decline of 200,000 jobs for August in the September 4th BLS Employment Situation report; TrimTabs Investment Research forecasts a loss of 335,000 jobs.

Further details on forecasts from WANTED and other providers are available on our BLS Forecast page.

job losses
continued in many of the major industry sectors

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