FORECAST: June 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 260,000 (Updated 7/1/09)

By Charles Thibault on June 19, 2009 in BLS Nonfarm Employment.

Based on improving Hiring Demand levels and the most recently-reported monthly payroll data for May, WANTED Technologies is forecasting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a loss of 260,000 jobs in its upcoming June Employment Situation report.

Several measures of employment conditions have stabilized in recent months. Most significantly, the BLS reported a loss of only 345,000 jobs in its May report, a figure that was considered a surprise compared to several forecasts of losses greater than 500,000.

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WANTED's forecasting model combines data the BLS reports with changes in levels of online job ad volume. As can be seen in the accompanying chart at left, the percentage change in year-over-year job ad volume has been improving since April. The improvement in the level of Hiring Demand in June was among the largest since the onset of the recession in December, 2007.

Update: The consensus estimate from Thomson/Reuters predicts a decline of 350,000 jobs for June in the July 2nd BLS Employment Situation report; TrimTabs Investment Research estimates a decline of 472,000 jobs for June.

Drilling down into industry groups, WANTED is predicting a loss 11,700 jobs in Transportation and Warehousing, and a gain of 30,200 jobs in Health Care.

In addition, WANTED expects the BLS to report a loss of 16,000 jobs in Finance and Insurance. Within sub-groups of that industry, WANTED forecasts a drop of 7,600 jobs in credit intermediation and related services (NAICS 522); a decline of 7,300 jobs in securities and commodities (NAICS 523) and a loss of 1,600 positions with insurance carriers (NAICS 524).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its Employment Situation report for June on the morning of Thursday, July 2.

Further details on forecasts from WANTED and others are available on our BLS Forecast page.