Last Friday, the BLS released a Non-Farm Payroll number for May that showed a loss of 345,000 jobs, a much smaller number than several forecasts (ours included) predicted. The other forecasts (scroll down) expected a loss of more than 500,000 jobs.
In the aftermath of this gap, there has been some speculation that the models the BLS employs to produce its payroll number could have been off. The "Birth Death" model is the focus on this speculation at Chris Martenson.com.
A blog post at Barron's contained an overview of the issue, citing the market's tepid reaction to the better-than-expected report.
Colorful charts here, with terse, sobering commentary.
Here is a particularly unvarnished assessment of the reliability of the May number.
And further analysis of the "Birth Death" model at The Big Picture.
From the other side, "sbailey", a labor market analyst who focuses on the State of Washington, offers an alternative view of the influence of the "Birth Death" effect.
All Entries
Dear Bruce,
Thanks for linking to our blog. Glad you found our analysis newsworthy. We are updating our powerpoint economic presentation. You might find that interesting, particularly as we show the continued weak end demand environment. Feel free to contact me in the interim to get our latest views on the economy both here and abroad. Thanks again.
Morris Segall